Tijuana x Toluca Betting tips for January 11 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Tijuana x Toluca, Saturday, 11/1/2025

📅 11/1/2025 03:00

Tijuana 2.62

X 3.50

Toluca 2.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Tijuana x Toluca:

🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $1200.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Tijuana x Toluca: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Tijuana in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $185.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Toluca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $112.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Tijuana scored at least 2 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 Tijuana matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Toluca conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Tijuana conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Toluca.

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Analysis from Tijuana x Toluca for the Mexico Liga MX – 11 of January

When the best bet on Tijuana x Toluca is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1244472 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Tijuana x Toluca

Should you bet on Tijuana?

🔵 Tijuana: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.59% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – profiting $583.20;
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$56.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 20.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 210 times – having a profit of $525.00;
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$265.00.

Is it worth betting on Toluca?

🔴 Toluca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 43.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $616.00
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$56.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tijuana x Toluca

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Tijuana
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tijuana x Toluca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Tijuana, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Tijuana.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Tijuana.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tijuana x Toluca

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.