Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund Betting tips for January 14 in Germany Bundesliga I
| 📅 14/1/2025 17:30 |
 Holstein Kiel5.78 |
X 4.75 |
Borussia Dortmund  1.48 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund:
🔮 Borussia Dortmund wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Borussia Dortmund, you can win up to $740.00!
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Some important points for the tip for Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Holstein Kiel in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $65.0. |
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Analysis from Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund for the Germany Bundesliga I – 14 of January
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🏟️ Holstein Kiel X Borussia Dortmund – Germany Bundesliga I |
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1245823 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund
Should you bet on Holstein Kiel?
🔵 Holstein Kiel: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 8.32% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.78. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 80 times – profiting $382.40;
- And would have lost other 920 times – with a loss of -$920.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$537.60.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 12.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $450.00
- And would have lost other 880 times – with a loss of -$880.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$430.00.
Is betting on Borussia Dortmund worth it?
🔴 Borussia Dortmund: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 79.42% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.48. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 790 times – this would give you a profit of $379.20
- And would lose other 210 times – losing -$210.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$169.20.
Handicaps analysis for the match Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.5 Holstein Kiel
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.5 Holstein Kiel, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +1.25 Holstein Kiel.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.25 Borussia Dortmund.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Holstein Kiel x Borussia Dortmund
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.
