Marseille x Lille Betting tips for January 14 in France Cup

Our betting tip for Marseille x Lille, Tuesday, 14/1/2025

📅 14/1/2025 20:10

Marseille 2.10

X 3.40

Lille 3.10

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Marseille x Lille:

🔮 Lille wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Marseille x Lille: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Marseille in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-100.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Lille in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-68.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Marseille scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Lille matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Lille caused at least one sending-off in its last 4 matches as the away team. 👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Marseille conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 9 road matches, Lille has not lost any of them. 👉 Marseille has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Lille playing at home.

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Analysis from Marseille x Lille for the France Cup – 14 of January

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Marseille and Lille.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1245169 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Marseille x Lille

Is it a good idea to bet on Marseille?

🔵 Marseille: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 48.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 490 times – this would give you a profit of $539.00
• And would lose other 510 times – losing -$510.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$29.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.99% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – this would give you a profit of $384.00
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$456.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Lille?

🔴 Lille: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 35.51% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $756.00
• And would lose other 640 times – having a loss of -$640.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$116.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Marseille x Lille

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Marseille
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Marseille x Lille

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Marseille and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Marseille.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Lille.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Marseille x Lille

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.