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Home » Predictions » Others » Volta Redonda x Fluminense Betting tips for January 16 in Brazil Campeonato Carioca
Thursday, 16 January 2025, 00h30 Brazil Campeonato Carioca
Volta Redonda Volta Redonda
PREDICTION Fluminense Wins Probability 40% 1 X 2
Fluminense Fluminense
ODD: @2.64 Don't miss this prediction!

Volta Redonda x Fluminense Betting tips for January 16 in Brazil Campeonato Carioca

Our betting tip for Volta Redonda x Fluminense, Thursday, 16/1/2025
📅 16/1/2025
00:30
Volta Redonda Volta Redonda
2.35
X
3.12
Fluminense Fluminense
2.64

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Volta Redonda x Fluminense:

🔮 Volta Redonda wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Volta Redonda, you can win up to $1175.00!

🔮 Fluminense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fluminense, you can win up to $1320.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for Volta Redonda x Fluminense:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Volta Redonda in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $69.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fluminense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $825.0.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Volta Redonda scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Fluminense, Volta Redonda scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Fluminense matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Volta Redonda has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Fluminense playing at home.

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Summary

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Analysis from Volta Redonda x Fluminense for the Brazil Campeonato Carioca – 16 of January

🏟️ Volta Redonda X Fluminense – Brazil Campeonato Carioca
📅 16 of January, 2025 – 00:30
🔵 Volta Redonda – Winning probability: 45.30% | Fair line: 2.21
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 14.53% | Fair line: 6.88
🔴 Fluminense – Winning probability: 40.17% | Fair line: 2.49
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Volta Redonda
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Volta Redonda x Fluminense right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1246961 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Volta Redonda x Fluminense

Is it worth betting on Volta Redonda?

🔵 Volta Redonda: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 45.3% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 450 times – having a profit of $607.50;
  • And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$57.50.

Should you bet on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 14.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.12. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $318.00;
  • And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$532.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Fluminense?

🔴 Fluminense: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 40.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.64. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would have hit 400 times – having a profit of $656.00;
  • And would have lost other 600 times – with a loss of -$600.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$56.00.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Volta Redonda x Fluminense

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Volta Redonda
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Volta Redonda x Fluminense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Volta Redonda, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Volta Redonda.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 Fluminense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Volta Redonda x Fluminense

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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