Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara Betting tips for February 16 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara, Sunday, 16/2/2025

📅 16/2/2025 03:10

Toluca 1.75

X 3.71

Chivas Guadalajara 4.20

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara:

🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $875.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Toluca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-10.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Chivas Guadalajara in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-320.0. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Chivas Guadalajara scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Toluca matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara, with Toluca as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Chivas Guadalajara conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Toluca has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Chivas Guadalajara playing at home.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara?

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Analysis from Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara for the Mexico Liga MX – 16 of February

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1263244 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara

Is it worth betting on Toluca?

🔵 Toluca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 62.67%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.75. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 630 times – profiting $472.50;
• And would have lost other 370 times – with a loss of -$370.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$102.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.52%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.71. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $623.30
• And would lose other 770 times – having a loss of -$770.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$146.70.

Should you bet on Chivas Guadalajara?

🔴 Chivas Guadalajara: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.81%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $480.00;
• And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$370.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Toluca
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Toluca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Toluca.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Toluca x Chivas Guadalajara

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.