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Home » Predictions » Puebla x Toluca Betting tips for March 15 in Mexico Liga MX
Saturday, 15 March 2025, 03h05 Mexico Liga MX
Puebla Puebla
PREDICTION Toluca Wins Probability 70% 1 X 2
Toluca Toluca
ODD: @1.62 Don't miss this prediction!

Puebla x Toluca Betting tips for March 15 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Puebla x Toluca, Saturday, 15/3/2025
📅 15/3/2025
03:05
Puebla Puebla
4.56
X
4.00
Toluca Toluca
1.62

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Puebla x Toluca:

🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $810.00!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com
 

The main points for the tip for Puebla x Toluca:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Puebla in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-265.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Toluca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-310.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Puebla scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Toluca, Puebla scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Toluca matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Summary

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Puebla x Toluca?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Puebla x Toluca, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Puebla x Toluca for the Mexico Liga MX – 15 of March

🏟️ Puebla X Toluca – Mexico Liga MX
📅 15 of March, 2025 – 03:05
🔵 Puebla – Winning probability: 11.87% | Fair line: 8.42
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 17.96% | Fair line: 5.57
🔴 Toluca – Winning probability: 70.17% | Fair line: 1.43
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Puebla
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Puebla x Toluca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1281124 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Puebla x Toluca

Is it a good idea to bet on Puebla?

🔵 Puebla: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.87% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.56. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 120 times – this would give you a profit of $427.20
  • And would lose other 880 times – losing -$880.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$452.80.

Is it worth betting on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 17.96% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $540.00
  • And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$280.00.

Is it worth betting on Toluca?

🔴 Toluca: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 70.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 700 times – this would give you a profit of $434.00
  • And would lose other 300 times – having a loss of -$300.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$134.00.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Puebla x Toluca

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.25 Puebla
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Puebla x Toluca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +1.25 Puebla and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Puebla.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Toluca.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Puebla x Toluca

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Written by
Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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