Cerro Porteno x Bolivar Betting tips for April 1 in Copa Libertadores

Our betting tip for Cerro Porteno x Bolivar, Tuesday, 1/4/2025

📅 1/4/2025 22:00

Cerro Porteno 1.64

X 3.89

Bolivar 4.60

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Cerro Porteno x Bolivar:

🔮 Cerro Porteno wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Cerro Porteno, you can win up to $820.00!

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The main points for the tip for Cerro Porteno x Bolivar: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cerro Porteno in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $159.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Bolivar in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $2.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Cerro Porteno scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Bolivar scored at least 1.0 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Bolivar matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Bolivar conceded at least 1.0 goal(s). 👉 Cerro Porteno is good playing home: it has 3 wins in a row in its last matches at home.

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Analysis from Cerro Porteno x Bolivar for the Copa Libertadores – 1 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cerro Porteno x Bolivar right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1294595 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cerro Porteno x Bolivar

Is betting on Cerro Porteno worth it?

🔵 Cerro Porteno: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 73.47%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.64. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 730 times – profiting $467.20;
• And would lose other 270 times – having a loss of -$270.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$197.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 11.01% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.89. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 110 times – profiting $317.90;
• And would have lost other 890 times – with a loss of -$890.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$572.10.

Is it a good idea to bet on Bolivar?

🔴 Bolivar: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 15.53%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $576.00;
• And would have lost other 840 times – with a loss of -$840.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$264.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cerro Porteno x Bolivar

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Cerro Porteno
⚽ Expected goals: 3.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cerro Porteno x Bolivar

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Cerro Porteno and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Cerro Porteno.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Bolivar.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cerro Porteno x Bolivar

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.