Joinville x Guarany de Bage Betting tips for April 19 in Brazil Serie D
| 📅 19/4/2025 18:30 |
 Joinville2.39 |
X 2.95 |
Guarany de Bage  2.88 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Joinville x Guarany de Bage:
🔮 Joinville wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Joinville, you can win up to $1195.00!
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Important information for your tip for Joinville x Guarany de Bage: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Joinville in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-95.0. |
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Analysis from Joinville x Guarany de Bage for the Brazil Serie D – 19 of April
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🏟️ Joinville X Guarany de Bage – Brazil Serie D |
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Joinville and Guarany de Bage.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1306590 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Joinville x Guarany de Bage
Is it worth betting on Joinville?
🔵 Joinville: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.75%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.39. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $764.50;
- And would lose other 450 times – having a loss of -$450.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$314.50.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.63% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $312.00;
- And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$528.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on Guarany de Bage?
🔴 Guarany de Bage: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.62% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.88. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $564.00;
- And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$136.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Joinville x Guarany de Bage
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Joinville
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Joinville x Guarany de Bage
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Joinville, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Joinville.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Joinville.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Joinville x Guarany de Bage
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.75, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
