Cologne x St Pauli Betting tips for December 6 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Cologne x St Pauli, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 14:30

Cologne 1.95

X 3.64

St Pauli 3.60

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Cologne x St Pauli:

🔮 St Pauli wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Cologne x St Pauli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cologne in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-265.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on St Pauli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-25.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Cologne scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, St Pauli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Cologne matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 St Pauli matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Cologne conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, St Pauli conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Cologne vs St Pauli?

Lets analyze the match between Cologne and St Pauli that will take place at RheinEnergieStadion, home of Cologne, with a capacity of 50,076 fans, ensuring a favorable environment for the home team.

📈 Table and performance analysis: Cologne has shown a mixed performance at home in recent games, scoring an average of 2 goals per match but also conceding 2 goals. They have a higher average of shots (14) and ball possession (47%) compared to St Pauli, which has lower numbers both offensively and defensively away from home. On the other hand, St Pauli is in a critical phase with nine consecutive defeats in the Bundesliga and has not won any of the last five away games in the same league.

📰 Recent news: Cologne has been dealing with some key injuries in attack like Ragnar Ache and canceled a planned transfer due to a serious injury of Raphael Obermair. Despite that, they strengthened their squad with Alessio Castro-Montes and are betting heavily on youth categories. Meanwhile, St Pauli is trying to recover after a long negative streak but recently achieved an important victory in the national cup that could boost morale and help stop their decline in the league.

From the median odds, we have the normalized implied probabilities: Cologne win ~48%, draw ~25%, St Pauli win ~27%. Considering Colognes superior offensive stats at home, tactical advantage at RheinEnergieStadion, and St Paulis recent crisis away, along with news about reinforcements versus injuries, my fair estimate would be close to: home_pred_gpt = 0.50; draw_pred_gpt = 0.28; away_pred_gpt = 0.22.

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately: home_pred_odds_gpt = 2.00; draw_pred_odds_gpt = 3.57; away_pred_odds_gpt = 4.55.

Analyzing the expected values using the final odds provided (home=1.95 / draw=3.5 / away=3.8), we see positive EVs only for the home win (~6%), indicating value in this bet compared to the more conservative probability forecast for Colognes victory.

Final suggestion: I agree with the Bets Kenya model to bet on the home team victory (Cologne), as despite recent difficulties they have a better offensive structure at their usual stadium against a currently very weak opponent like St Pauli away. Betting on a draw or visitor doesnt seem to have positive expected value given the current form of the teams. Therefore, its a good opportunity to bet on Colognes win with an estimated expected value above 5% 👍⚽

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Analysis from Cologne x St Pauli for the Germany Bundesliga I – 6 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Cologne and St Pauli.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1449132 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news about Cologne x St Pauli

Cologne: Recent football news from Cologne includes several player transfers and injury management: the club completed the signing of Belgian winger Alessio Castro-Montes from Union Saint-Gilloise on a three-year deal until June 2028, while a planned transfer of Raphael Obermair was canceled after a ligament injury; forward Ragnar Ache suffered a mild concussion during training, leading to tactical adjustments in attack. In the youth sector, the U-19 team won the German A-Youth Championship with a dramatic 5-4 victory over Bayer Leverkusen, and the club also signed 17-year-old Maik Akumu from Hertha BSC on a long-term contract for the academy. In the womens Bundesliga, Cologne captain Lena Hegering will be out for a long period after shoulder surgery.

St. Pauli: FC St. Paulis recent form in the Bundesliga remains critical, with nine consecutive league defeats plunging the club into a negative spiral, but the team advanced in the DFB-Pokal on December 2, 2025, beating Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-1 away, thanks to a decisive goal by Louis Oppie at the end, after an initial goal celebrated by Martijn Kaars and Jackson Irvine; coach Alexander Blessin praised the victory as a “real sign” and emphasized that the club must now turn cup momentum into league points to halt the decline.

Table analysis for the match between Cologne x St Pauli

Cologne: Cologne is in 10th place with 15 points, holding a comfortable position on the table, far from both the relegation zone and the spots for international competitions. The team has no real chance of fighting for European spots at this stage of the season, but is also already safe from any risk of relegation. Therefore, the match against St Pauli is important to maintain a good streak, but not decisive for their final goal this season.

St Pauli: St Pauli is in 17th place, within the relegation zone, with only 7 points. With a delicate situation, all remaining matches are decisive to try to escape relegation and seek essential points for Bundesliga survival. Facing Cologne is a crucial game to try to reduce the gap with opponents and avoid direct relegation.

Summary: The match is very important for St Pauli, which fights against relegation, while for Cologne it is a game to maintain stability on the table. Therefore, the confrontation is more decisive for the visitors than for the hosts.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Cologne x St Pauli

Is it a good idea to bet on Cologne?

🔵 Cologne: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 46.35%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.95. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 460 times – this would give you a profit of $437.00
• And would have lost other 540 times – with a loss of -$540.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$103.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.46% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.64. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 210 times – this would give you a profit of $554.40
• And would have lost other 790 times – with a loss of -$790.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$235.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on St Pauli?

🔴 St Pauli: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 32.19% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – profiting $832.00;
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$152.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cologne x St Pauli

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Cologne
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cologne x St Pauli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Cologne, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Cologne.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cologne x St Pauli

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.