Heidenheim x SC Freiburg Betting tips for December 6 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Heidenheim x SC Freiburg, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 14:30

Heidenheim 3.60

X 3.58

SC Freiburg 1.96

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Heidenheim x SC Freiburg:

🔮 SC Freiburg wins the match
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The main points for the tip for Heidenheim x SC Freiburg:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Heidenheim in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-220.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on SC Freiburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-60.0.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Heidenheim x SC Freiburg, with Heidenheim as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Heidenheim conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Heidenheim conceded at least 2 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against SC Freiburg.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg:

Lets analyze the match between Heidenheim and SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, which will be played at Voith-Arena, home of Heidenheim. 🏟️

📈 Heidenheim is coming from a tough phase, with only 1 win in the last 5 home games and a high goals conceded average (2 per game). Additionally, they suffered a heavy defeat recently (6-0 against Bayer Leverkusen), which affects team morale. On the other hand, SC Freiburg shows better away performance, with 2 wins in the last 5 away games and a higher goals scored average (2 per game). Freiburgs ball possession is slightly lower than the opponents, but they compensate with more offensive efficiency.

📰 The news supports this analysis: Heidenheim is fighting against relegation and faces internal difficulties such as the possible departure of midfielder Leonardo Scienza. Conversely, SC Freiburg has a more balanced squad even after some departures and is riding a wave of good recent performances in the Bundesliga.

Analyzing the median odds provided by betting houses (3.6 for Heidenheim win; 3.54 for draw; 1.97 for Freiburg win) and normalizing the implied probabilities, we get approximately: home win ~27%, draw ~28%, away win ~45%. Considering the offensive/defensive stats of the teams and their current form, these probabilities seem coherent.

However, our internal model suggests very high odds for the home team victory (~5.46), indicating an underestimation of Heidenheims chance to win — which doesnt align with recent data or the difficult context the team faces at home.

Thus, we calculate fair odds closer to the median odds from the betting houses: Heidenheim victory around 3.6-4.0, a draw near 3.5-3.7, and Freiburg victory between 1.9-2.0 — better reflecting the clear favoritism of the visitors.

Evaluating the expected value in the final bets indicated by the houses:

• Heidenheim victory: Negative EV due to low realistic probability;
• Draw: EV close to zero;
• Freiburg victory: Positive EV above +6%, confirming it as a value bet according to our calculation.

Final suggestion: betting on SC Freiburgs victory offers greater statistical security and positive expected value in this challenging match for the home team.
The Bets Kenya model also indicates this bet as valuable — we fully agree! 🎯

Take advantage of this well-founded analysis to make your informed bet! ⚽💰

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Analysis from Heidenheim x SC Freiburg for the Germany Bundesliga I – 6 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Heidenheim x SC Freiburg right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1449132 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on the match between Heidenheim and SC Freiburg

Heidenheim: Heidenheim suffered a crushing 6-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen on November 8, 2025, a result that left the club entrenched near the bottom of the Bundesliga table and prompted strong comments from president Holger Sanwald before the upcoming match against Union Berlin. Meanwhile, the club secured a long-term deal for promising youth product Adam Kölle, extending his contract until June 30, 2029. However, midfielder Leonardo Scienza is likely to leave the club on the deadline day after negotiations with Southampton, and coach Frank Schmidt continues leading the team through a tough season as Heidenheim assesses options in the squad to try to halt the decline.

SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg started the current Bundesliga season with two losses – first to Augsburg and then to Cologne – but quickly turned things around, highlighted by a 4-0 victory over Mainz, with three Freiburg players included in the kickers “team of the day.” The clubs squad now has 27 registered players, all eligible for the Europa League competition, and despite the late departure of midfielder Merlin Röhl without a direct replacement, coach Julian Schuster understands the decision and sees no gaps in the squad. Additionally, summer transfer activities for the 2025/26 season are being finalized, and the team will face Darmstadt today in the DFB-Pokal match.

Table analysis for the game between Heidenheim and SC Freiburg

Heidenheim: The team is in 16th place, within the relegation playoff zone, with only 8 points. The gap to escape the danger zone is very small, and the match against SC Freiburg could be decisive for earning vital points in the fight to avoid relegation. Being in a critical zone, every point counts a lot for Heidenheim, and the home game is even more important to prevent a greater risk in the rest of the championship.

SC Freiburg: The team is in 8th place, with 16 points, far from the relegation zone and also without a real chance to fight for a direct spot in the Champions League, which is at a considerable distance. However, the difference to the top 6, which guarantees a spot in European competitions, is not so large, making the game important to try to get closer to those spots and improve the position on the table.

Summary: The game is quite important for Heidenheim, which fights to get out of the risk zone, and also relevant for SC Freiburg in the pursuit of better positions for European competitions. Therefore, it is an important match for both teams. ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Heidenheim x SC Freiburg

Is it worth betting on Heidenheim?

🔵 Heidenheim: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.07% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $442.00
• And would have lost other 830 times – with a loss of -$830.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$388.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.88% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.58. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $696.60;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$33.40.

Is betting on SC Freiburg worth it?

🔴 SC Freiburg: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 56.04% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.96. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 560 times – having a profit of $537.60;
• And would have lost other 440 times – with a loss of -$440.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$97.60.

Handicaps analysis for the match Heidenheim x SC Freiburg

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Heidenheim
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Heidenheim x SC Freiburg

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Heidenheim and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Heidenheim.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Heidenheim x SC Freiburg

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.