Leeds x Liverpool Betting tips for December 6 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Leeds x Liverpool, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 17:30

Leeds 4.21

X 3.85

Liverpool 1.75

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Leeds x Liverpool:

🔮 Tied Match
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The main points for the tip for Leeds x Liverpool:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $73.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Liverpool in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-186.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Leeds scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Leeds matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Leeds conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Leeds conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Liverpool.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Leeds vs Liverpool?

Lets analyze the Leeds vs Liverpool match in the Premier League, which will take place at Elland Road, Leeds traditional home. 🏟️

📈 Leeds comes from an important victory against Chelsea with a 3-1 score, moving out of the relegation zone and boosting morale for the match. However, they still face injury issues such as the absence of winger Dan James. Liverpool has shown inconsistent performance in recent matches, with only three wins in the last 14 games across all competitions and criticism of their pace and energy on the field.

Statistically, Liverpool dominates possession (57% vs 43% for Leeds) and maintains a similar goal average (2 goals per game for both). However, Leeds has demonstrated more recent offensive efficiency playing at home (9 goals in the last 5 home games) compared to the visiting team which scored fewer goals away recently.

Analyzing the house median odds: Leeds victory is priced at 4.33 (implied probability ~23%), draw at 3.84 (~26%), and Liverpool victory at 1.75 (~57%). After normalization to adjust the house margin, we get approximate fair probabilities: Leeds ~24%, draw ~27%, Liverpool ~49%. Considering recent statistical data and motivational news, I would slightly adjust these probabilities to give a bit more weight to the draw due to the teams recent instability.

Calculating fair odds based on this combined analysis: Leeds victory around @4.0; draw around @3.6; Liverpool victory around @2.5 – indicating that bookmakers might be slightly undervaluing the home team or overestimating the visiting teams favoritism.

The Bets Kenya model suggests positive value only on the “draw” bet with EV +20%, while advising against betting on either team’s win due to low positive expectation (-30% for home and -7% for away). I partially agree with this view because I see value in the draw given the recent instability of the teams and the demonstrated technical balance in recent statistics.

Suggested Bet: Draw – a bet with good expected value (>5%) considering both the offered odds and the recent motivational factors of the teams.

📰 News greatly influenced my analysis: Leeds recent moral recovery after beating Chelsea away was key to positively adjusting their probability; meanwhile, the energy problems reported by former player Jamie Carragher about Liverpool suggest caution regarding their absolute favoritism in this match.

Good luck! ⚽🔥

Looking for another bookie to bet on Leeds x Liverpool?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2025, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Leeds x Liverpool:

Analysis from Leeds x Liverpool for the England Premier League – 6 of December

When the best bet on Leeds x Liverpool is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1449132 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on the match between Leeds and Liverpool

Leeds United: Leeds United secured a 3-1 victory over Chelsea on December 3, 2025, with goals from Jaka Bijol, Ao Tanaka, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and a late goal by Pedro Neto for the visitors. This result lifted Leeds out of the relegation zone and eased pressure on coach Daniel Farke; the win put them three points above the relegation zone after a streak of four consecutive losses that had left them 18th in the Premier League. Meanwhile, winger Dan James remains sidelined with a tendon injury expected to keep him out for at least two months, and midfielder Anton Stach has regained form and is available for selection.

Liverpool: Liverpools recent performance in the Premier League remains inconsistent, having drawn 1-1 with Sunderland on December 3, 2025, after a 2-0 win over West Ham the previous day, in which Alexander Isak scored his first league goal for the club. In the match against Sunderland, Liverpool struggled with lack of energy, rhythm, and strength, leading former player Jamie Carragher to describe the performance as “really concerning”. Coach Arne Slot defended his decision to keep Mohamed Salah on the bench amid criticism, emphasizing that the team needs time to reorganize and that a victory against Leeds is imminent. Overall, the team has earned only 23 points in the last 18 league games, winning just three of the last 14 matches across all competitions.

Table analysis for the match between Leeds x Liverpool

Leeds: With the team in 17th place and accumulating 14 points, Leeds is in the danger zone close to relegation, as they are just above the relegation block and have few points ahead of the drop zone. Therefore, this match against Liverpool is crucial to try to escape relegation. A victory could give an important boost to the team in the fight to stay in the Premier League.

Liverpool: Although Liverpool is in 8th place with 22 points and outside the direct spots for European competitions, the team still has chances to fight for a spot in the UEFA Europa League (considering the point difference to the teams in the qualification zone). The match is important to keep this possibility alive and try to climb the table, especially being a few rounds from the end of the regular phase.

Summary: This confrontation is important for both teams: Leeds seeks to move away from relegation, while Liverpool wants to approach the positions that guarantee European competitions. A match with a lot of motivation from both sides! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Leeds x Liverpool

Is it worth betting on Leeds?

🔵 Leeds: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.21. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $577.80
• And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$242.20.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.41%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.85. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $855.00;
• And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$155.00.

Should you bet on Liverpool?

🔴 Liverpool: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 51.25%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 510 times – having a profit of $382.50;
• And would lose other 490 times – having a loss of -$490.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$107.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Leeds x Liverpool

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Leeds
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Leeds x Liverpool

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Leeds, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.75 Leeds.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Leeds x Liverpool

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.