Toluca x Monterrey Betting tips for December 7 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Toluca x Monterrey, Sunday, 7/12/2025

📅 7/12/2025 01:00

Toluca 1.62

X 4.10

Monterrey 4.40

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Toluca x Monterrey:

🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $810.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Toluca x Monterrey:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Toluca in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-33.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Monterrey in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Monterrey, Toluca scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Monterrey conceded at least 2 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Toluca conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Monterrey.
👉 Toluca has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Monterrey playing at home.
👉 It is not a good time for Monterrey as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Toluca vs Monterrey?

Lets analyze the match between Toluca and Monterrey at the Nemesio Diez Stadium, home of Toluca, which has a vibrant and passionate atmosphere for the home team. 🏟️

📈 Toluca has been performing very well recently at home: they scored 11 goals in their last 5 games at their stadium, conceded only 3, won 3 matches, and havent lost any. Additionally, their ball possession average is higher (56% vs. 44%), with more shots on target (15 per game) and more goals scored (2 per game). Monterrey, on the other hand, struggles away: they scored fewer goals (7 in the last 5 away games), conceded many (16), lost most recent away matches, and have a lower possession average (51%). This shows Toluca is in better shape for this semifinal.

📰 Recent news indicates Toluca is the current champion aiming for back-to-back titles in Liga MX Apertura 2025. They advanced to the semifinals with a sporting advantage even after an aggregate draw in the quarterfinals. Monterrey also seeks their second consecutive title but faces key absences like Lucas Ocampos injured and Jorge Rodríguez suspended. This weakens the visiting team for this decisive match.

Analyzing the median odds: Tolucas victory is around 1.62; draw about 4.1; Monterreys victory approximately 4.33.

Normalized implied probabilities are approximately:

• Toluca win: ~58%
• Draw: ~23%
• Monterrey win: ~19%

Based on recent offensive/defensive stats, clear home dominance by Toluca, and the absences on Monterrey, my fair estimate for the probabilities is:

• Toluca wins: about 60% (~fair odd ~1.67)
• Draw: about 22% (~fair odd ~4.55)
• Monterrey wins: about 18% (~fair odd ~5.55)

Therefore, the final odds offered by bookmakers are reasonable for a home win but slightly underestimate the risk of a draw; the odds for an away win seem overestimated given the current issues of the visiting team.

The Bets Kenya model analysis indicates a positive expected value only for betting on the home team with EV above +12%, confirming that this is the best bet here.

Final suggestion:
Bet on Toluca to win, as they have a clear advantage both statistically and motivationally playing at the Nemesio Diez Stadium against a weakened opponent.
Expected value is around +12%, indicating a good opportunity! 🎯⚽️

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Toluca x Monterrey?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Toluca x Monterrey, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Toluca x Monterrey for the Mexico Liga MX – 7 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Toluca and Monterrey.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449456 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news about Toluca x Monterrey

Deportivo Toluca: Deportivo Toluca entered the Apertura 2025 Liguilla as the current champions and is now preparing for the semi-final clash against Rayados de Monterrey, after advancing from the quarter-finals with the sporting advantage that qualified them despite the draw on aggregate. The Red Devils aim for a consecutive title and will try to secure the two-peat by defeating Rayados, who also reached the semi-finals by beating América, while the other semi-final will be between Cruz Azul and Tigres.

Rayados de Monterrey: Rayados de Monterrey is preparing for the Liga MX Apertura 2025 semi-final against Toluca, hoping to secure a second consecutive title after coming close in the previous final; however, they face some setbacks, as Lucas Ocampos is still recovering from a fractured right wrist suffered in a domestic accident and may miss the first leg, while goalkeeper Luis Cárdenas publicly warned Toluca about Rayados intentions and emphasized the teams preparation, and coach Domènec Torrent will also be without defender Jorge Rodríguez, who is suspended after receiving a red card in the previous match.

Table analysis for the match between Toluca x Monterrey

Toluca: Toluca is leading the championship with 37 points, just 1 point ahead of the second place. With so few rounds remaining, this match is crucial for Toluca to maintain its top position and secure a better campaign in the decisive phase, increasing its chances of winning the title. Every point counts in this final stretch, so the team is expected to go onto the field very focused and determined.

Monterrey: Monterrey is in fifth place, with 31 points, within the playoff qualification zone, but still needs points to secure its spot and advance smoothly. A victory here against the leader Toluca could be an important step to climb the table and distance itself from the closest competitors, ensuring a better position for the final stages. Therefore, this game is also very important for Monterrey.

Summary: This match is important for both teams: Toluca aims to maintain the lead and secure an advantage in the fight for the title, while Monterrey wants to consolidate its qualification and improve its position in the playoffs. A decisive duel promised to be played with great intensity! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Toluca x Monterrey

Is betting on Toluca worth it?

🔵 Toluca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 76.37%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 760 times – this would give you a profit of $471.20
• And would lose other 240 times – having a loss of -$240.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$231.20.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 13.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – this would give you a profit of $434.00
• And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$426.00.

Should you bet on Monterrey?

🔴 Monterrey: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.95% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 100 times – this would give you a profit of $340.00
• And would lose other 900 times – losing -$900.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$560.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Toluca x Monterrey

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.0 Toluca
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Toluca x Monterrey

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.0 Toluca, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Toluca.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.75 Toluca.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Toluca x Monterrey

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 3.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.25 goals.