Paris FC x Toulouse Betting tips for December 13 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Paris FC x Toulouse, Saturday, 13/12/2025

📅 13/12/2025 20:05

Paris FC 2.36

X 3.35

Toulouse 2.90

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Paris FC x Toulouse:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Paris FC x Toulouse

Some important points for the tip for Paris FC x Toulouse:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Paris FC in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-327.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Toulouse in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-120.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Paris FC conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Toulouse conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Paris FC vs Toulouse?

Lets analyze the match between Paris FC and Toulouse at Stade Jean Bouin, which is the usual stadium of Paris FC, thus ensuring the home advantage for them. 🏟️

📈 Looking at recent statistics, both teams show a quite balanced performance: Paris FC scores an average of 1 goal per home game and concedes 1 goal as well. Toulouse has a similar away average, with 1 goal scored and conceded per match. The number of shots indicates that Paris FC has more possession and more shots on target (13 vs 9), while Toulouse suffers more shots (12 vs 10). This suggests a slight offensive dominance by Paris FC when playing at their stadium.

📰 Recent news reports that Paris FC comes from an important draw against Auxerre and maintains a good campaign in the womens league, showing a positive environment at the club. Toulouse, on the other hand, faces issues with significant injuries and suspensions that could impact their starting lineup; additionally, their coach will need to adjust the team to compensate for these absences. This could weaken the visiting team in this match.

Analyzing the median odds provided by betting houses (2.36 for home win, 3.34 for draw, and 2.9 for away win), we calculate the implied normalized probabilities as:

• Home win: ~40%
• Draw: ~28%
• Away win: ~32%

Based on balanced statistics but with a tactical advantage to the home team due to the home field and the physical difficulties of the visitors, we estimate fair probabilities close to these implied odds but with a slight preference for Paris FCs victory (~42%), followed by a draw (~30%), and then Toulouses win (~28%).

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately:

• Paris FC: ~2.38
• Draw: ~3.33
• Toulouse: ~3.57

Calculating the expected values using the final odds indicated:

• Expected value for Paris FCs win is slightly negative (-0.4%), indicating little to no advantage in betting on this option.
• For the draw, the expected value is significantly negative (-8%), discouraging this bet.
• Betting on Toulouses win has an even worse expected value (-19%), reinforcing our analysis of their current difficulties.

Final analysis:
The Bets Kenya model suggests higher odds for all options compared to our estimates based on actual statistics — this indicates it is being conservative or overestimating the risks of the match.
I agree with its overall assessment regarding the lack of positive value in the available bets.
My suggestion is to avoid betting on this match as there is no significant positive expected value in any of the options given the current data.
If I were to bet based on recent game logic, I would prefer Paris FC to win or draw (double chance), as they play at home in a stadium where they have good ball possession control despite recent mixed results.

Always remember to consider injury/suspension news as a decisive factor — here, they weigh against Toulouse!

Summary 📰 Relevant news:

– Major injuries in Toulouses starting lineup;
– Disciplinary suspension affects key visiting players;
– Relatively stable environment at Paris FC;

Summary 📈 League position & morale:

– Both teams are close in the table with no major difference;
– Moderate need for points especially for Paris FC to avoid the danger zone;
– Home advantage slightly favors the Parisian team;

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Paris FC x Toulouse?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Paris FC x Toulouse for the France Ligue 1 – 13 of December

When the best bet on Paris FC x Toulouse is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1452259 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Paris FC and Toulouse

Paris FC: Paris FC, managed by Stéphane Gilli and playing their home matches at Stade Jean Bouin with a capacity of 20,000 spectators in Issy-les-Moulineaux, is currently competing in Ligue 1 and will face Le Havre on December 7, 2025; they recently drew 1-1 with Auxerre in the league, while the womens team under Sandrine Soubeyrand continues a strong campaign in the UEFA Womens Champions League, with victories such as 1-0 over Valencia and a 3-0 win in the domestic league against Hachac, highlighting contributions from forwards like Lorena Azzaro and midfielders like Gaëtane Thiney.

Toulouse FC: Toulouse FC is preparing for the Ligue 1 match against Strasbourg at the Toulouse Stadium on Saturday, December 6, 2025, scheduled for 10 am PT (1 pm ET), and coach Fabien Rosenior confirmed that although Niklas Schmidt, Abu Francis, and Yann Gboho remain sidelined due to injuries, Frank Magri should be available despite his recent call-up to the Cameroon national team for the Africa Cup of Nations; meanwhile, Saidou Sow is out with a knee problem, Abdoul Ouattara is doubtful after a thigh injury, Valentin Barco has returned from suspension due to a red card, Emanuel Emegha is suspended for violating club values, and both goalkeeper Karl-Johan Johnsson and defender Maxi Oyedele are unavailable, leaving Rosenior to adjust the 3-4-2-1 formation after the recent 2-2 draw with Marseille as Toulouse seeks to improve their league position.

Table analysis for the game between Paris FC and Toulouse

Paris FC: Paris FC is in 14th place with 16 points and close to the relegation zone. With relegation threatening, every point gained is valuable to escape the bottom of the table. This match against Toulouse is important for Paris FC to maintain some distance from the danger zone and avoid a bigger drop in the standings.

Toulouse: Toulouse is in 9th place with 20 points, a bit more comfortable than Paris FC but still far from European competition qualification spots. The match is important for Toulouse to gather points and try to get closer to the top positions, increasing their chances of fighting for a spot in Europe.

Summary: The game is important for both teams: Paris FC to try to leave the danger zone and Toulouse to seek continuity at the top of the table and perhaps dream of better classifications. ⚽🔥

Tips for the 1×2 market for Paris FC x Toulouse

Should you bet on Paris FC?

🔵 Paris FC: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 40.11% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.36. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 400 times – profiting $544.00;
• And would lose other 600 times – having a loss of -$600.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$56.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.69% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – profiting $611.00;
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$129.00.

Should you bet on Toulouse?

🔴 Toulouse: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 34.2%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 340 times – having a profit of $646.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – having a loss of -$660.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$14.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Paris FC x Toulouse

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Paris FC
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Paris FC x Toulouse

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Paris FC, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Paris FC.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Paris FC x Toulouse

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.