Napoli x AC Milan Betting tips for December 18 in Italy Super Cup
| 📅 18/12/2025 21:00 |
 Napoli2.66 |
X 3.10 |
AC Milan  2.70 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Napoli x AC Milan:
🔮 AC Milan wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on AC Milan, you can win up to $1350.00!
The main points for the tip for Napoli x AC Milan:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Napoli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $117.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on AC Milan in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $42.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against AC Milan, Napoli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Napoli conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against AC Milan.
👉 Napoli has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against AC Milan playing at home.
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Napoli x AC Milan?
If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:
Analysis from Napoli x AC Milan for the Italy Super Cup – 18 of December
🏟️ Napoli X AC Milan – Italy Super Cup
📅 18 of December, 2025 – 21:00
🔵 Napoli – Winning probability: 37.71% | Fair line: 2.65
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 15.16% | Fair line: 6.6
🔴 AC Milan – Winning probability: 47.13% | Fair line: 2.12
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 8.25 corner kicks
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Napoli x AC Milan right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1453683 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Napoli x AC Milan
Is it a good idea to bet on Napoli?
🔵 Napoli: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.66. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 380 times – profiting $630.80;
- And would have lost other 620 times – with a loss of -$620.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$10.80.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 15.16% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 150 times – having a profit of $315.00;
- And would lose other 850 times – losing -$850.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$535.00.
Should you bet on AC Milan?
🔴 AC Milan: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 47.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.70. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 470 times – this would give you a profit of $799.00
- And would have lost other 530 times – with a loss of -$530.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$269.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Napoli x AC Milan
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Napoli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Napoli x AC Milan
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.25 Napoli, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Napoli.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.0 AC Milan.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Napoli x AC Milan
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
