Newcastle x Chelsea Betting tips for December 20 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Newcastle x Chelsea, Saturday, 20/12/2025

📅 20/12/2025 12:30

Newcastle 2.40

X 3.50

Chelsea 2.75

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Newcastle x Chelsea:

🔮 Chelsea wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Chelsea, you can win up to $1375.00!

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Important information for your tip for Newcastle x Chelsea:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Newcastle in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $291.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Chelsea in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-210.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Newcastle scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Chelsea, Newcastle scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 Newcastle matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Newcastle conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Newcastle has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Chelsea playing at home.

🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Newcastle vs Chelsea?

Lets analyze the match between Newcastle and Chelsea at St. James Park, a traditional Newcastle stadium that certainly gives an advantage to the Magpies playing at home.

📈 Table and performance analysis: Newcastle has a great recent home record: 4 wins, 1 draw, and no losses in the last 5 games at their stadium, averaging 2 goals per game and conceding only 1. Chelsea, on the other hand, has a more irregular away performance, with only 2 wins in the last 5 league away games and a lower goal average (1 goal per game). Additionally, Chelsea is under pressure after a poor run in the Champions League.

📰 Recent news: Newcastle is on a high after reaching the semifinals of the Carabao Cup with a dramatic victory over Fulham — boosting the teams morale to face Chelsea. Conversely, Chelsea won their quarter-final match in the Carabao Cup but faces pressure on coach Enzo Maresca due to recent lack of victories in the Champions League. This instability could negatively impact their performance.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are: Newcastle win ~40%, draw ~27%, Chelsea win ~33%. Considering the offensive/defensive stats of the teams and Newcastles clear home advantage at St. James Park (which is also their home), my adjusted estimate would be roughly: Newcastle win ~45%, draw ~25%, Chelsea win ~30%.

Fair odds would be approximately: Newcastle @2.22 | Draw @4.00 | Chelsea @3.33

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (Newcastle @2.7 | Draw @3.6 | Chelsea @2.4), it’s clear there is value in betting on Newcastle — since the final odds are higher than my fair odds calculation for them (positive expected value). The odds for Chelsea seem underestimated given their current form; the draw has a negative expected value due to its lower estimated probability.

Suggestion: Bet on Newcastle to win, taking advantage of their good home form and the opponents instability! 🦅💪

The Bets Kenya model betting suggests a favorite to the visitor (Chelsea) with a positive EV (~+30%), but I disagree with this view given the current team contexts — I believe betting on the home team offers better value here!

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Newcastle x Chelsea?

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Analysis from Newcastle x Chelsea for the England Premier League – 20 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Newcastle x Chelsea right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1455033 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Latest news on the match between Newcastle and Chelsea

Newcastle United: Newcastle United advanced to the Carabao Cup semi-finals after a dramatic 2-1 victory over Fulham in the quarter-finals on December 17, 2025, with Lewis Miley heading the winning goal in stoppage time, after an initial goal by Yoane Wissa and a draw by Sasa Lukic; the win marks the clubs ninth consecutive victory in the Carabao Cup in regular time – the longest streak since Liverpool in 1995 – and secures a semi-final clash against Manchester City, with the first leg scheduled for the week starting January 12, 2026. Additionally, the Magpies face a busy January schedule, including home Premier League matches against Crystal Palace (January 4) and Leeds United (January 7), as well as a third-round FA Cup match at home against Bournemouth on January 10.

Chelsea: Chelsea secured a 3-1 comeback victory over Cardiff in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals, with late goals from Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto propelling the Blues into the semi-finals, where the draw will determine whether they face Arsenal or Crystal Palace. The victory comes amid increasing pressure on coach Enzo Maresca after a recent Champions League defeat to Atalanta, which left the team without wins in four matches, fueling speculation about his future. The club has also been linked to midfield reinforcements to strengthen Moisés Caicedo and Enzo Fernández. In the coming weeks, Chelsea has Premier League commitments against Brentford, Crystal Palace, and West Ham in January, along with Champions League fixtures against Pafos and Napoli, with the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final scheduled for the week of January 12.

Table analysis for the match between Newcastle x Chelsea

Newcastle: Newcastle is in 12th place with 22 points, in an intermediate region of the table. Being outside the relegation zone but also far from European qualification spots, this match against a direct rival in the fight for international places is important to try to climb a few positions and ensure safety in the standings. A victory can help solidify their stay in the top tier, avoiding unpleasant surprises at the end of the season.

Chelsea: Chelsea is in 4th place with 28 points and is in the Champions League qualification zone. Because they are in a fierce battle for direct entry into the main European tournament, this confrontation is decisive to maintain the advantage over close competitors. Losing points to Newcastle could give an opportunity for teams just behind to steal this spot, so the game is highly important for Chelsea to secure their position among the top teams.

Summary: The match is important for both teams, but for different reasons: Chelsea fights to consolidate a spot in the Champions League, while Newcastle seeks to climb the table to ensure peace of mind for the season. An exciting duel with a direct impact on the fight for positions in the Premier League! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Newcastle x Chelsea

Is betting on Newcastle worth it?

🔵 Newcastle: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.65% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $406.00
• And would lose other 710 times – losing -$710.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$304.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.64%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 170 times – having a profit of $425.00;
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$405.00.

Should you bet on Chelsea?

🔴 Chelsea: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.75. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $962.50;
• And would lose other 450 times – having a loss of -$450.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$512.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Newcastle x Chelsea

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Newcastle
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Newcastle x Chelsea

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Newcastle and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Newcastle. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Newcastle x Chelsea

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.