Mainz x St Pauli Betting tips for December 21 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Mainz x St Pauli, Sunday, 21/12/2025

📅 21/12/2025 14:30

Mainz 1.97

X 3.40

St Pauli 3.81

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Mainz x St Pauli:

🔮 Mainz wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Mainz, you can win up to $985.00!

Make this bet on Bet365 now!

Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Important information for your tip for Mainz x St Pauli:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Mainz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-100.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on St Pauli in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-25.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, St Pauli scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Mainz matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, St Pauli conceded at least 1 goal(s).

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Mainz x St Pauli?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Mainz x St Pauli, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Mainz x St Pauli for the Germany Bundesliga I – 21 of December

When the best bet on Mainz x St Pauli is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1454884 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Mainz and St Pauli

1. FSV Mainz 05: The 1. FSV Mainz 05, now managed by coach Urs Fischer, secured a historic first qualification to the round of 16 of the UEFA Conference League by defeating Turkish team Samsunspor 2-0 on December 18, 2025, with goals from Silvan Widmer and Nadiem Amiri. The club will learn its next opponent – likely one among FC Lausanne-Sport, Crystal Palace, Sigma Olomouc, or Zrinjski Mostar – after the draw scheduled for January 16, 2026. Meanwhile, Mainz is seventh in the Bundesliga and prepares to host their relegation battle rival, FC St. Pauli, with key players like Amiri, Widmer, Lennard Maloney, Benedict Hollerbach, and Dominik Kohr expected to start the match.

St. Pauli: St. Pauli is near the bottom of the Bundesliga 2025/26, occupying 16th place after 14 matches, with a record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a goal difference of -13, and 11 points. The team ended a nine-match losing streak with a 1-1 draw against 1. FC Köln last week but then lost 2-1 to 1. FC Heidenheim, in which defender Smith was sent off with a red card. Now, St. Pauli faces Mainz with several absences – Bos, Caci, Dal, Kawasaki, Leitsch, Mwene, Schopp, and Tauer – leading to tactical adjustments, such as moving Dzwigala to the right side of the three-man defense and Wahl taking captaincy. Meanwhile, the reserve team, St. Pauli II, suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat to HSV II in the Regionalliga Nord, remaining at the bottom of the table.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Mainz x St Pauli

Should you bet on Mainz?

🔵 Mainz: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 59.93%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.97. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 600 times – having a profit of $582.00;
• And would lose other 400 times – losing -$400.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$182.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 23.98% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 240 times – having a profit of $576.00;
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$184.00.

Should you bet on St Pauli?

🔴 St Pauli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 16.09%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.81. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 160 times – having a profit of $449.60;
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$390.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Mainz x St Pauli

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Mainz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Mainz x St Pauli

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Mainz, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Mainz.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Mainz x St Pauli

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.