Girona x Atletico Madrid Betting tips for December 21 in Spain La Liga

Our betting tip for Girona x Atletico Madrid, Sunday, 21/12/2025

📅 21/12/2025 13:00

Girona 4.50

X 3.90

Atletico Madrid 1.70

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Girona x Atletico Madrid:

🔮 Atletico Madrid wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atletico Madrid, you can win up to $850.00!

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The main points for the tip for Girona x Atletico Madrid:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Girona in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-40.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico Madrid in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $20.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Girona scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Atletico Madrid conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Girona conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Atletico Madrid.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?

⚽ The match between Girona and Atlético de Madrid at Estadi Montilivi promises to be interesting! Looking at recent statistics, Girona has shown good resilience at home, with 2 wins and no losses in their last 5 games at their stadium, scoring an average of 1 goal per match. Meanwhile, Atlético de Madrid has a stronger away attack, averaging 2 goals per game and more shots on target (11 versus 9 for Girona). Ball possession is balanced for both teams (52%), but Atlético is more efficient offensively.

📈 In La Liga standings, Girona is fighting to escape the relegation zone (17th place), while Atlético holds a comfortable position near the top (4th place). This gives the home team extra motivation to seek important points against an opponent that may also be focused on the Copa del Rey and dealing with rumors about key players like Griezmann.

📰 News reinforces this analysis: Girona has been on the rise since December, with standout players like Ounahi and Tsygankov who have been decisive. On the other hand, Atlético recently drew against Valencia and benefits from the important return of Llorente; however, there are uncertainties in the squad due to transfer rumors. This could impact the visiting teams stability.

Analyzing the median odds provided by betting houses: Gironas win is priced around 4.5-5.0; a draw around 3.9-4.0; Atléticos win between 1.66-1.7.
Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately:
– Girona win: ~21%
– Draw: ~25%
– Atlético win: ~54%

Considering the combined statistical data and recent news, I would slightly adjust these fair probabilities to:
– Girona win: ~25% (slightly higher due to extra motivation playing at home)
– Draw: ~27%
– Atlético Madrid win: ~48%

Thus, the fair odds would be approximately:
Girona @4.0
Draw @3.7
Atlético @2.08

The comparison shows that betting houses are overestimating Atlético Madrids strength by offering very low odds (~1.66) while underestimating Gironas realistic chance to surprise their motivated home crowd.

💡 My suggestion is to avoid betting on the favorite directly at the low odds without a significant expected positive margin — even though the real chances are higher — because it offers little expected value.
Betting on a draw or even a surprising Girona victory could provide better returns considering the risks involved.

Suggested Bet:
Bet on a draw or double chance Girona/Draw, aiming to take advantage of the margin left by the bookmakers on the favored visitors.

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Analysis from Girona x Atletico Madrid for the Spain La Liga – 21 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Girona x Atletico Madrid right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1455219 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Girona and Atletico Madrid

Girona: Since mid-December 2025, Girona has been on the rise, making a dramatic comeback against Real Sociedad that put the opposing player Sergio in danger, prompting the club to issue a warning before the next match at Anoeta. The dynamic midfielder Ounahi and forward Daniil Tsygankov were highlighted for their impact; Tsygankov ranks 45th on LaLiga EA Sports Pichichi list with three goals, tying veteran forward Álvaro Stuani, and the team is steadily progressing to escape the relegation zone as they prepare for upcoming Copa del Rey matches.

Atlético de Madrid: Atlético Madrid recently drew 1-1 with Valencia in LaLiga, with Lucas Beltrán scoring for the visitors and Jan Oblak making a crucial save on a Beltrán shot. The match featured attempts by Giuliano Simeone, a header blocked by Musso, and a foul on Antoine Griezmann. Coach Diego Simeone welcomed Marcos Llorentes return as the best news for the team, emphasizing that higher quality makes scoring easier. Off the field, the club plans to increase revenue aiming for over 100 million euros annually with shows starting in 2030. Additionally, transfer rumors link former Atlético legends Koke and Antoine Griezmann to MLS team Inter Miami, with Griezmann reportedly interested in a transfer.

Table analysis for the game between Girona and Atletico Madrid

Girona: Girona is currently in 18th place, in the relegation zone, with 15 points. This match is extremely important for the team, which is fighting to avoid dropping to a lower division. Every point in this final stretch can make a difference to escape relegation, and facing an opponent directly ahead in the table serves as a decisive confrontation for their chances of staying in La Liga.

Atletico Madrid: Atletico Madrid holds 4th place with 34 points and is in the last direct spot for the Champions League. Although they have a good lead over the teams just below, the game is crucial to maintain or even improve this position, ensuring qualification for the main continental competition. A victory against Girona helps solidify their position in the table and avoid surprises in the final rounds.

Summary: A very important match for both teams. Girona needs the win to escape relegation, while Atletico seeks to secure their spot in the Champions League. A decisive confrontation in the table that can significantly impact each teams objectives this season. ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Girona x Atletico Madrid

Is betting on Girona worth it?

🔵 Girona: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 5.28% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 50 times – having a profit of $175.00;
• And would lose other 950 times – losing -$950.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$775.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 9.77%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.90. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 100 times – profiting $290.00;
• And would have lost other 900 times – with a loss of -$900.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$610.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Atletico Madrid?

🔴 Atletico Madrid: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 84.94% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 850 times – this would give you a profit of $595.00
• And would have lost other 150 times – with a loss of -$150.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$445.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Girona x Atletico Madrid

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Girona
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Girona x Atletico Madrid

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.75 Girona and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Girona.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Girona x Atletico Madrid

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.00 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.