Alcochetense x GD Lagoa Betting tips for December 20 in Portugal Campeonato Nacional
| 📅 20/12/2025 15:00 |
 Alcochetense2.06 |
X 3.26 |
GD Lagoa  3.32 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Alcochetense x GD Lagoa:
🔮 Alcochetense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Alcochetense, you can win up to $1030.00!
Important information for your tip for Alcochetense x GD Lagoa:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Alcochetense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-270.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on GD Lagoa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-280.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Alcochetense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, GD Lagoa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 road matches, GD Lagoa has not lost any of them.
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Analysis from Alcochetense x GD Lagoa for the Portugal Campeonato Nacional – 20 of December
🏟️ Alcochetense X GD Lagoa – Portugal Campeonato Nacional
📅 20 of December, 2025 – 15:00
🔵 Alcochetense – Winning probability: 53.15% | Fair line: 1.88
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 25.13% | Fair line: 3.98
🔴 GD Lagoa – Winning probability: 21.72% | Fair line: 4.6
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Alcochetense
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks
When the best bet on Alcochetense x GD Lagoa is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1455033 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Tips for the Match Odds market for Alcochetense x GD Lagoa
Should you bet on Alcochetense?
🔵 Alcochetense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 53.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.06. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $561.80;
- And would have lost other 470 times – with a loss of -$470.00 because of them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$91.80.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.13% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.26. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $565.00
- And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$185.00.
Is it worth betting on GD Lagoa?
🔴 GD Lagoa: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 21.72% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.32. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $510.40;
- And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$269.60.
Handicaps analysis for the match Alcochetense x GD Lagoa
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Alcochetense
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Alcochetense x GD Lagoa
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.25 Alcochetense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.25 Alcochetense. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Alcochetense x GD Lagoa
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.
