Paganese x Citta di Fasano Betting tips for December 21 in Italy Serie D

Our betting tip for Paganese x Citta di Fasano, Sunday, 21/12/2025

📅 21/12/2025 14:00

Paganese 2.30

X 3.40

Citta di Fasano 2.60

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Paganese x Citta di Fasano:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Paganese x Citta di Fasano

The main points for the tip for Paganese x Citta di Fasano:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Paganese in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $183.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Citta di Fasano in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 Paganese did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as home team.
👉 In the last 4 Paganese matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Paganese x Citta di Fasano?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Paganese x Citta di Fasano, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Paganese x Citta di Fasano for the Italy Serie D – 21 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Paganese x Citta di Fasano right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1455219 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Paganese x Citta di Fasano

Is betting on Paganese worth it?

🔵 Paganese: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 40.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 410 times – this would give you a profit of $533.00
• And would lose other 590 times – losing -$590.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$57.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 27.58% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $672.00
• And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$48.00.

Is it worth betting on Citta di Fasano?

🔴 Citta di Fasano: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.62% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 320 times – this would give you a profit of $512.00
• And would lose other 680 times – having a loss of -$680.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$168.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Paganese x Citta di Fasano

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Paganese
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Paganese x Citta di Fasano

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Paganese and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Paganese.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Paganese.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Paganese x Citta di Fasano

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.