Illescas x Villarrobledo Betting tips for December 21 in Spain Tercera Group 18
| 📅 21/12/2025 11:00 |
 Illescas1.67 |
X 3.40 |
Villarrobledo  4.74 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Illescas x Villarrobledo:
🔮 Illescas wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Illescas, you can win up to $835.00!
Important information for your tip for Illescas x Villarrobledo:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Illescas in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-295.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Villarrobledo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 3 Illescas matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Illescas x Villarrobledo, with Illescas as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Villarrobledo conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 It is not a good time for Villarrobledo as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.
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Analysis from Illescas x Villarrobledo for the Spain Tercera Group 18 – 21 of December
🏟️ Illescas X Villarrobledo – Spain Tercera Group 18
📅 21 of December, 2025 – 11:00
🔵 Illescas – Winning probability: 71.75% | Fair line: 1.39
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 18.92% | Fair line: 5.29
🔴 Villarrobledo – Winning probability: 9.34% | Fair line: 10.71
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Illescas
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
When the best bet on Illescas x Villarrobledo is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1455219 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Tips for the 1×2 market for Illescas x Villarrobledo
Is it a good idea to bet on Illescas?
🔵 Illescas: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 71.75% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.67. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 720 times – profiting $482.40;
- And would have lost other 280 times – with a loss of -$280.00 because of them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$202.40.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.92% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $456.00;
- And would have lost other 810 times – with a loss of -$810.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$354.00.
Is it worth betting on Villarrobledo?
🔴 Villarrobledo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 9.34% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.74. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 90 times – having a profit of $336.60;
- And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$573.40.
Handicaps analysis for the match Illescas x Villarrobledo
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Illescas
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Illescas x Villarrobledo
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Illescas and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Illescas.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Villarrobledo.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Illescas x Villarrobledo
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.
