Burnley x Everton Betting tips for December 27 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Burnley x Everton, Saturday, 27/12/2025

📅 27/12/2025 15:00

Burnley 4.00

X 3.35

Everton 1.93

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Burnley x Everton:

🔮 Everton wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Everton, you can win up to $965.00!

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Important information for your tip for Burnley x Everton:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Burnley in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-150.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Everton in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $240.0.
👉 In the last 6 Everton matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Burnley conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Burnley conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Everton.
👉 It is not a good time for Burnley as home team: it comes from 4 losses in a row in its last home matches.

🤖 What does ChatGPT think about our prediction for Burnley vs Everton?

🔥 The match between Burnley and Everton promises to be an interesting duel at Turf Moor, Burnleys traditional home. Looking at recent stats, Burnley has conceded more goals than scored at home (average of 1 goal scored against 2 conceded), and has only one win in the last five home games. Everton, despite having less ball possession (37% vs. 46%), shows a decent away performance with two wins in the last five matches and a balanced average of goals scored and conceded (1 each).

📈 In the table, both teams are fighting to stay in the Premier League, which increases the pressure for points. Burnley aims to establish itself after returning to the top flight and needs points at home to avoid relegation. Everton is also focused on league safety but seems to be in a slightly more comfortable position.

📰 News indicates Burnley is active in the transfer market, mainly seeking midfielders and wingers on loan, plus renewing goalkeeper Dubravkas contract, which could be crucial for their unstable defense so far. Everton, on the other hand, is expected to keep its current squad with no major changes in the January transfer window, trusting the competitive spirit praised by coach Moyes despite recent offensive struggles.

Analyzing the median odds (4 for Burnley win; 3.35 for draw; 1.91 for Everton win) and normalizing their implied probabilities, we get approximately: Burnley Win ~22%, Draw ~26%, Everton Win ~52%. Considering Burnleys weak defensive stats at home and Evertons greater consistency away, my fair estimate is close to this or slightly favors the visitor.

However, our model indicates predicted odds much higher for the home team (~6.41), suggesting a strong underestimation of their chances to win — probably due to Turf Moors historic stadium status — while giving positive value to betting on the away win with EV above 16%. I fully agree: betting on Everton seems to be the best choice! They have shown more defensive stability and enough offensive capacity to exploit the opponents local weaknesses.

Recommended Bet: Everton victory, as it offers a significant positive expected value (>16%) according to our model adjusted to the teams real conditions.

Final tip: Beware of bets on a draw or home win given Burnleys recent poor performances at home!

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Burnley x Everton?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Burnley x Everton for the England Premier League – 27 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Burnley and Everton.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1456398 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

The latest news about Burnley x Everton

Burnley: Burnley is currently struggling to stay in the Premier League after returning to the top division, with coach Scott Parker praising the squad for earning a “precious point” in a 1-1 draw against Bournemouth, a match that saw six changes to the starting lineup — including the introduction of Jaidon Anthony, Zian Flemming, Lucas Pires, and Josh Laurent — and a solid performance from goalkeeper Martin Dubravka, who is on a one-year contract and whose future depends on the clubs stay; the Clarets also secured a two-year contract for Laurent (with an option for a third) and extended Vaclav Hladkys stay until the end of the 2025/26 season, while young goalkeeper Max Thompson returns from a successful loan. The club is expected to be active in the January transfer window, mainly focusing on strengthening the midfield and wingers through loans, with Dubravka, Laurent, Hladky, and veteran Ashley Barnes listed as players without contracts at the end of the season.

Everton: Everton finished 2025 with a mixed outlook: manager David Moyes praised the teams competitive spirit after a 1-0 loss to Arsenal, where Viktor Gyökeres scored a penalty, but also admitted that it is unlikely the club will be very active in the January 2026 transfer window, despite previous rumors of seeking a new striker, a central midfielder, and a specialist right-back; key contractual situations include Seamus Coleman, now 36, who renewed his contract, James Garner and Michael Keane, who have club options for extension, Vitaliy Mykolenko, whose agent is negotiating a new deal, and Idrissa Gueye, whose contract also includes an extension clause. The team continues to rely on regular starters like Jordan Pickford, James O’Brien, James Grealish, and newly signed Adam Aznou, remaining focused on ensuring Premier League safety during the holiday period.

England Premier League table analysis for Burnley x Everton

Burnley: Burnley is in 19th place with only 11 points, in the relegation zone. With a negative goal difference and few wins, the team faces a critical situation in the Premier League. This match is crucial to try to escape the drop zone and avoid direct relegation. Every point is precious for Burnley in this final stretch.

Everton: Everton is in 10th place with 24 points, well away from the relegation zone and also from the top teams fighting for spots in international competitions. The game is not decisive for Everton, which can manage a comfortable position on the table without major risks or chances of qualifying for continental competitions.

Summary: This match is very important for Burnley, which fights to escape relegation, but has little significance for Everton, which has already secured an intermediate position without risks. Therefore, it is a crucial game for only one of the teams.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Burnley x Everton

Should you bet on Burnley?

🔵 Burnley: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 15.69% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 4.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 160 times – profiting $480.00;
• And would lose other 840 times – losing -$840.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$360.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.27% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.35. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $611.00;
• And would lose other 740 times – losing -$740.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$129.00.

Is betting on Everton worth it?

🔴 Everton: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 58.04%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.93. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 580 times – having a profit of $539.40;
• And would have lost other 420 times – with a loss of -$420.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$119.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Burnley x Everton

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Burnley
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Burnley x Everton

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Burnley and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Burnley.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.5 Burnley.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Burnley x Everton

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.