Liverpool x Leeds Betting tips for January 1 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Liverpool x Leeds, Thursday, 1/1/2026

📅 1/1/2026 17:30

Liverpool 1.46

X 4.35

Leeds 6.24

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Liverpool x Leeds:

🔮 Liverpool wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Liverpool, you can win up to $730.00!

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The main points for the tip for Liverpool x Leeds:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Liverpool in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-202.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Leeds in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Liverpool scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Leeds scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Leeds, Liverpool scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Liverpool x Leeds, with Liverpool as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the away team, Leeds conceded at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Liverpool vs Leeds?

Lets analyze the match between Liverpool and Leeds at Anfield, an iconic stadium that definitely favors the home team. Liverpool has a high ball possession average (64%) and creates many chances with 21 shots per game, while conceding an average of 2 goals per match. Leeds, on the other hand, has a lower possession (48%) and also concedes about 2 goals, but has shown good offensive form with 11 goals in the last four Premier League games.

Median odds indicate clear favoritism for Liverpool (1.46), with a draw at 4.35 and Leeds win much less likely at 6.24. Converting these odds into normalized implied probabilities gives approximately: Liverpool win ~62%, draw ~14%, Leeds win ~8%. Considering recent statistics, especially Liverpools superior offensive performance at home and higher possession, this distribution makes sense.

However, our internal model predicts very different probabilities: it suggests a very high chance for Liverpool victory (~87%), almost ruling out a draw or away win (<10% combined). This seems exaggerated given Leeds is in a positive phase under Daniel Farke, scoring many goals including set pieces — something that could exploit Liverpools recent defensive difficulties on set plays.

Calculating fair odds based on the combined analysis of statistics and news:

• Liverpool Victory: around 1.60 to 1.65
• Draw: around 4.00
• Leeds Victory: around 5.50 to 6.00

Betting on Liverpools victory remains safe due to technical quality and strong home advantage at Anfield 🏟️, but not as certain as our model suggests — there is potential value in a draw or even a moderate bet on Leeds considering their recent good form.

📰 News:
Liverpool is dealing with an important injury in attack (Isak) and defensive issues on set pieces; seeking reinforcements in the transfer window.
Leeds is revitalized by coach Farke using an efficient offensive system with highlights on set pieces via Anton Stach.
These factors slightly balance the chances outside the overly optimistic view of the model.

📈 League Position:
Liverpool, traditionally fighting for top positions, needs to maintain a positive streak; Leeds is seeking to establish itself after recent recovery — this increases the visitors motivation to surprise even away from home.

Final analysis:
Betting solely on Liverpools easy win as our model suggests can be risky due to underestimating Leeds current qualities evidenced by recent news.
I recommend considering combined or multiple bets involving double result (Liverpool or draw) to mitigate risks.
The calculated expected value shows greater safety in this balanced approach rather than the single bet suggested by the model, which has a high EV but is based on overly optimistic assumptions about Reds absolute dominance.

Good luck! ⚽🔥

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Liverpool x Leeds?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Liverpool x Leeds for the England Premier League – 1 of January

The latest news about Liverpool x Leeds

Liverpool: Liverpool beat Wolves 2-1 at Anfield on December 27, 2025, with Florian Wirtz scoring his first Premier League goal for the club, but the joy was dampened by Alexander Isaks leg fracture, suffered in a collision with Micky van de Ven on December 23, 2025, which sidelined the Swedish striker; the teams set-piece issues persist, with only one goal scored approximately every 12 corners, and the squad is expected to be active in the January 2026 transfer window, reportedly seeking a defender, a winger, and a central midfielder, with ongoing interest in Marc Guehi and potential exits of Ibrahima Konaté, Andy Robertson, Freddie Woodman, and Rhys Williams.

Leeds United: Leeds United is in very good form under Daniel Farke, reviving the 4-3-3 system that has significantly boosted confidence and produced eight points and eleven goals in the last four Premier League matches, with the team often building attacks involving all outfield players; key contributors include Anton Stach, who has taken on a more advanced role and now manages corners, helping Leeds become the most prolific team in set-piece goals in the league, while a persistent injury to defender Rodrigo Rødon may influence whether the new formation continues, and in the most recent game against Sunderland, Leeds managed a 1-1 draw after Dominic Calvert-Lewin finished a well-crafted team move, prompting Farke to praise the mentality, dominance, and collective effort of his players, highlighting that all eleven Leeds players touched the ball during the build-up.

England Premier League table analysis for Liverpool x Leeds

Liverpool: Liverpool is in 4th place with 32 points, fighting for a spot in the Champions League, which currently secures 4th place. The gap to 5th place is 3 points, so a win in this match is important to maintain or even increase this advantage, ensuring qualification for the main European competition.

Leeds: Leeds is in 16th place with 20 points, slightly above the relegation zone, but still in a delicate situation on the table. With a 3-point lead over the relegation zone, the game against Liverpool is important to distance themselves from the threat of relegation and gain momentum for upcoming rounds.

Summary: The match is important for both Liverpool, aiming to secure a Champions League spot, and Leeds, fighting to stay away from relegation. A decisive clash for both teams! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Liverpool x Leeds

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Liverpool x Leeds right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1457092 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Liverpool?

🔵 Liverpool: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 86.82% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.46. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 870 times – having a profit of $400.20;
• And would lose other 130 times – losing -$130.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$270.20.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 9.14% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.35. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 90 times – this would give you a profit of $301.50
• And would lose other 910 times – having a loss of -$910.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$608.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Leeds?

🔴 Leeds: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 4.04% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 6.24. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 40 times – having a profit of $209.60;
• And would lose other 960 times – losing -$960.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$750.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Liverpool x Leeds

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.5 Liverpool
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Liverpool x Leeds

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -1.5 Liverpool, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.0 Liverpool.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Liverpool.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Liverpool x Leeds

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.