Marseille x Nantes Betting tips for January 4 in France Ligue 1
| 📅 4/1/2026 14:00 |
 Marseille1.23 |
X 6.26 |
Nantes  11.00 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Marseille x Nantes:
🔮 Marseille wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Marseille, you can win up to $615.00!
Important information for your tip for Marseille x Nantes:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Marseille in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $139.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nantes in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $160.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team, Marseille scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Nantes, Marseille scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Nantes matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Nantes conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Marseille has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Nantes.
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Analysis from Marseille x Nantes for the France Ligue 1 – 4 of January
🏟️ Marseille X Nantes – France Ligue 1
📅 4 of January, 2026 – 14:00
🔵 Marseille – Winning probability: 96.77% | Fair line: 1.03
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 2.52% | Fair line: 39.71
🔴 Nantes – Winning probability: 0.71% | Fair line: 140.03
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Marseille
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 10.25 corner kicks
Tips for the Match Odds market for Marseille x Nantes
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Marseille x Nantes right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1457948 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Is it worth betting on Marseille?
🔵 Marseille: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 96.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.23. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 970 times – this would give you a profit of $223.10
- And would lose other 30 times – losing -$30.00 with them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$193.10.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 2.52% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 6.26. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 30 times – having a profit of $157.80;
- And would have lost other 970 times – with a loss of -$970.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$812.20.
Is it worth betting on Nantes?
🔴 Nantes: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 0.71% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 11.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 10 times – this would give you a profit of $100.00
- And would have lost other 990 times – with a loss of -$990.00 because of them.
So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$890.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Marseille x Nantes
Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.75 Marseille
⚽ Expected goals: 3.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Marseille x Nantes
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.75 Marseille and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.75 Marseille.
Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Marseille x Nantes
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.25 goals.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.25 goals.
