Tottenham x Sunderland Betting tips for January 4 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Tottenham x Sunderland, Sunday, 4/1/2026

📅 4/1/2026 15:00

Tottenham 1.83

X 3.55

Sunderland 4.20

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Tottenham x Sunderland:

🔮 Tottenham wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Tottenham, you can win up to $915.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Tottenham x Sunderland:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Tottenham in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-118.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sunderland in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $150.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the home team, Tottenham scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Sunderland, Tottenham scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Tottenham has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Sunderland.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Tottenham vs Sunderland?

Lets analyze the match between Tottenham and Sunderland at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, a modern stadium with large capacity, which certainly favors the home team in terms of atmosphere and pressure on the opponent.

📈 Table analysis: Tottenham is in a tough phase in the Premier League, holding an intermediate position (14th place), trying to recover after a difficult season. Sunderland has been pleasantly surprising, maintaining an undefeated record at home and showing defensive resilience against strong teams like Manchester City. This indicates that despite Tottenhams favoritism due to home advantage, Sunderland should not be underestimated.

📰 Recent news: Tottenham is going through a transition with new coach Thomas Frank seeking to stabilize the team after Postecoglous departure. The sale of forward Brennan Johnson may impact the offense, but defensive reinforcements are being sought to improve consistency. On the other hand, Sunderland shows solid defensive strength under Regis Le Bris and maintains high morale after holding big opponents without conceding goals.

Calculation of fair probabilities:

• Average goals scored by Tottenham at home: 9 goals / 5 matches = 1.8
• Average goals conceded by Tottenham at home: 6 / 5 = 1.2
• Average goals scored by Sunderland away: 3 / 5 = 0.6
• Average goals conceded by Sunderland away: 6 / 5 = 1.2

Average possession for Tottenham is higher (54% vs 38%), as well as shots (14 vs 9) and shots on target (6 vs 4), indicating greater offensive control in the game.

Adjusting the implicit probabilities of median odds: – Tottenham win: 1/1.85 ≈ 0.5405 – Draw: 1/3.55 ≈ 0.2817 – Sunderland win: 1/4.2 ≈ 0.238 Total: ~1.0602; normalized: – Tottenham win: ≈0.5405/1.0602=50.95% – Draw: ≈26.56% – Sunderland win: ≈22.49%

Given the favorable statistical data for the home team in attack and possession, combined with the modern stadium and active crowd, my adjusted estimate would be approximately: Tottenham win ~53%, draw ~27%, Sunderland win ~20%.

Fair odds analysis considering context:

• The unstable defense of both teams suggests the possibility of goals from both sides;
• Sunderland has good defensive organization away but less offensive power;
• Tottenham needs to win to improve a poor campaign;
• The new coach is still adjusting the team – there may be inconsistencies;

Therefore, fair odds could be slightly better for Tottenham victory (~1.89) compared to current (~1.80), a more valued draw (~3.70) due to the inconsistency of the home team, and a less probable away win (~4.90).

Expected value (EV) analysis:

• According to Bets Kenya model, positive EV is only in the home win (+11%), confirming value in this bet;
• Our analysis supports this view given the statistical dominance of Spurs despite recent difficulties;

My recommendation is to bet on Tottenham Hotspurs victory 🏆 as they have a clear advantage in offensive statistics playing in their modern stadium that imposes strong pressure on visitors; additionally, they need to score points to climb the table, while Sunderland tends to play more defensively seeking to avoid a large defeat.

However, stay alert to the strong tactical resistance of the Black Cats, who may seek a draw or even surprise with a quick counterattack — therefore, combined bets or alternative markets may also be interesting!

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Tottenham x Sunderland?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Tottenham x Sunderland:

Analysis from Tottenham x Sunderland for the England Premier League – 4 of January

Latest news on the match between Tottenham and Sunderland

Tottenham Hotspur: Tottenham Hotspur started 2026 after celebrating a surprising Europa League victory in 2025, but remains stuck in a tough Premier League campaign, dropping from 17th place last season to 14th under new coach Thomas Frank, who took over after Ange Postecoglous departure and is committed to stabilizing the team and reviving its offensive play; defender Micky van de Ven warned that the clubs home performance is “unacceptable” and that consistency is essential, while recent on-field results have been mixed, highlighted by a goalless draw with Brentford that led fans to sing “Boring Tottenham, boring,” and off the pitch, the club finalized the sale of forward Brennan Johnson to Crystal Palace for £35 million and is reportedly seeking a natural left-back to strengthen the defense.

Sunderland: Sunderland continued its strong start to the Premier League season by holding Manchester City to a goalless draw at the Stadium of Light on January 1, 2026, maintaining its undefeated home record in ten games – a feat only matched by Ipswich Town in 1992/93 – and keeping the club as the second promoted team to achieve this streak; coach Regis Le Bris praised the teams defensive resilience and highlighted its growth and learning after “a good game against a very strong opponent,” while City forward Erling Haaland remains the only Premier League player who has yet to score against Sunderland, emphasizing the solid performance of the Black Cats who also prevented City from closing the gap to league leaders Arsenal.

Table analysis for the match between Tottenham and Sunderland

Tottenham: Tottenham is in 12th place with 26 points, in a league where the fight for European spots is above them (positions 5 and onwards). They are close to Newcastle (13th) and Brighton (14th), so they face a direct challenge to move away from the mid-table zone and avoid dropping into the lower part of the standings. This match is important for Tottenham to earn points and improve their ranking, staying away from the danger zone and aiming to get closer to the top 10.

Sunderland: Sunderland holds 7th place with 29 points, very close to Chelsea and Manchester United, who are in 5th and 6th with 30 points. This position in the middle of the table offers Sunderland real chances to fight for a UEFA Europa League spot, as they just need to keep accumulating points to climb a few positions. Therefore, the game against Tottenham is very important to secure three points and continue competing for European competitions next season.

Summary: The match is important for both teams: for Sunderland as an opportunity to move up the table and secure a spot in European tournaments, and for Tottenham to avoid dropping in the standings and try to reach the top 10. A game full of motivation from both sides! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Tottenham x Sunderland

When the best bet on Tottenham x Sunderland is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1458345 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Tottenham worth it?

🔵 Tottenham: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 60.15% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.83. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 600 times – this would give you a profit of $498.00
• And would lose other 400 times – having a loss of -$400.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$98.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 26.2% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.55. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 260 times – having a profit of $663.00;
• And would have lost other 740 times – with a loss of -$740.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$77.00.

Should you bet on Sunderland?

🔴 Sunderland: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.65% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $448.00;
• And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$412.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Tottenham x Sunderland

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Tottenham
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Tottenham x Sunderland

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Tottenham and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Tottenham.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Tottenham.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Tottenham x Sunderland

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.