Everton x Brentford Betting tips for January 4 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Everton x Brentford, Sunday, 4/1/2026

📅 4/1/2026 15:00

Everton 2.37

X 3.16

Brentford 3.10

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Everton x Brentford:

🔮 Brentford wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Brentford, you can win up to $1550.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

Some important points for the tip for Everton x Brentford:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Everton in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-55.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Brentford in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-290.0.
👉 In the last 4 Brentford matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Everton x Brentford, with Everton as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Everton has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Brentford playing at home.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Everton vs Brentford:

Lets analyze the match between Everton and Brentford at Hill Dickinson Stadium, which is Evertons new stadium, with a capacity of over 52,000 fans, providing a modern and motivating environment for the home team. 🏟️

📈 In terms of recent performance, Everton has shown some defensive fragility at home (average of 1.6 goals conceded per game in the last 5 home matches) and scored an average of 1.2 goals per game. Meanwhile, Brentford away has been suffering quite a bit (average of 1.6 goals conceded), but also manages to score regularly (average of 0.6 goals away). Brentford is on a good streak after a convincing win against Bournemouth and a goalless draw against Tottenham, showing recent offensive strength.

The implied probabilities of median odds are: Everton win ~42%, draw ~32%, Brentford win ~32%. After normalization to adjust the house margin, the approximate fair probabilities are: Everton 39%, draw 29%, Brentford 32%.

Considering recent offensive/defensive stats, the slight advantage goes to Everton playing in their new stadium – which should boost morale – but key injuries in the starting lineup could negatively impact the home team’s performance.

The analysis of context-adjusted fair odds suggests close to:

• Everton: about @2.55
• Draw: about @3.45
• Brentford: about @3.10

Using the final odds to calculate expected value (EV):

• Everton win EV ≈ -7%
• Draw EV ≈ -11%
• Brentford win EV ≈ +14%

Therefore, the bet with positive expected value is Brentford to win — even away — due to the team’s current good form and recent defensive struggles of both teams.

Suggested bet by Bets Kenya:

• Bet on the away team (Brentford), as it has a positive expected value (+15%). I fully agree with this recommendation! ⚽🔥

📰 Relevant news:
Everton faces serious squad issues due to injuries and absences in the African Cup; additionally, they are actively seeking reinforcements in the transfer market to improve their performance during this window.
Brentford, on the other hand, is on a roll after recent positive results and aims to maintain their good campaign to reach better positions in the table.

Overall, despite the enthusiastic crowd at Hill Dickinson Stadium being a strong motivational factor for Everton, the absences weigh heavily against the solid form Brentford is experiencing — making a bet on the visitors a smart choice here!

Let’s take advantage of this value bet? 🚀💰

Looking for another bookie to bet on Everton x Brentford?

If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Everton x Brentford:

Analysis from Everton x Brentford for the England Premier League – 4 of January

Latest news on the match between Everton and Brentford

Everton: Everton recently drew 0-0 with Burnley on December 27, 2025, a match that marked the clubs record of 112 games without scoring in the Premier League. They then secured a 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest on December 30, 2025, with goals from James Garner and Thierno Barry. The squad remains affected by injuries to Michael Keane, Charly Alcaraz, Jarrad Branthwaite, Seamus Coleman, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, and absences from the Africa Cup of Nations of Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye. Jack Grealish did not play against Burnley due to a virus. The club is actively planning signings for January, targeting a new striker to diversify options beyond Thierno Barry and Beto, a central midfielder—potentially on loan like Kobbie Mainoo or Kalvin Phillips—and a specialist right-back, with loan interest in Joshua Zirkzee from Manchester United. Everton also has several players with contracts ending at seasons end, including James Garner, Vitaliy Mykolenko, Michael Keane, Idrissa Gueye, Seamus Coleman, and Harry Tyrer.

Brentford: Brentford finished 2025 with a commanding 4-1 win over Bournemouth, highlighted by Kevin Schades perfect hat-trick, lifting the Bees to eighth place in the Premier League—just three points behind sixth-placed Manchester United—securing their highest points total at the end of a season (26) in five years, with six wins in nine home games. On January 1, 2026, the team drew 0-0 with Tottenham Hotspur at Gtech Community Stadium, marking Thomas Franks return to the bench against his former club. The clubs January transfer window is focused on replacing midfielder Vitaly Janelt, who is leaving, with long-term options like Quinten Timber from Feyenoord or Joey Veerman from PSV, and strengthening the defense with targets such as Kristoffer Ajer, Ethan Pinnock, and Bobby Thomas from Coventry.

Table analysis for the game between Everton and Brentford

Everton: Everton is in 8th place with 28 points, just 1 point ahead of Brentford, which is in 9th. Considering that spots for international competitions usually include teams in the top positions, this match is quite important for Everton, as a victory could help the team distance itself from Brentford and strengthen its fight for a spot in the next UEFA Europa League edition or even a better position. The game is decisive to keep the team in the race for higher places on the table and to maintain the advantage over a direct rival.

Brentford: Brentford is in 9th place with 27 points, one point behind Everton. The match is crucial for Brentford, which needs a win to surpass the direct opponent and climb the standings, increasing its chances to fight for a spot in European competitions or at least secure a better placement. The proximity on the table makes this confrontation a real six-point challenge for Brentford.

Summary: This is an important game for both teams, as both Everton and Brentford are close on the table and seek to secure better positions for access to international competitions. The match can directly influence the expectations and objectives of both teams for the rest of the championship. ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Everton x Brentford

When the best bet on Everton x Brentford is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1458345 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on Everton worth it?

🔵 Everton: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 35.78%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.37. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – profiting $493.20;
• And would lose other 640 times – losing -$640.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$146.80.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 26.84%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.16. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $583.20;
• And would lose other 730 times – losing -$730.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$146.80.

Should you bet on Brentford?

🔴 Brentford: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 37.37% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 370 times – having a profit of $777.00;
• And would lose other 630 times – losing -$630.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$147.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Everton x Brentford

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Everton
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Everton x Brentford

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Everton and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Everton.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.25 Brentford.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Everton x Brentford

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.