Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril Betting tips for January 4 in Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1

Our betting tip for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril, Sunday, 4/1/2026

📅 4/1/2026 11:00

Valladolid Promesas 3.20

X 3.10

Deportivo Fabril 2.10

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril

Some important points for the tip for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Valladolid Promesas in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-325.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Deportivo Fabril in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $10.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Deportivo Fabril scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 matches as the home team against Deportivo Fabril, Valladolid Promesas scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Valladolid Promesas conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Deportivo Fabril has not lost any of them.

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Analysis from Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril for the Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 1 – 4 of January

Tips for the 1×2 market for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1457948 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is it worth betting on Valladolid Promesas?

🔵 Valladolid Promesas: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 26.76% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 270 times – this would give you a profit of $594.00
• And would have lost other 730 times – with a loss of -$730.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$136.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.83% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – this would give you a profit of $588.00
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$132.00.

Is it worth betting on Deportivo Fabril?

🔴 Deportivo Fabril: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 45.41% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.10. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 450 times – this would give you a profit of $495.00
• And would lose other 550 times – losing -$550.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$55.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 Valladolid Promesas
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Valladolid Promesas and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Valladolid Promesas.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Valladolid Promesas x Deportivo Fabril

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.