Crystal Palace x Aston Villa Betting tips for January 7 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Crystal Palace x Aston Villa, Wednesday, 7/1/2026

📅 7/1/2026 19:30

Crystal Palace 2.60

X 3.40

Aston Villa 2.62

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Crystal Palace x Aston Villa:

🔮 Crystal Palace wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Crystal Palace, you can win up to $1300.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Crystal Palace x Aston Villa:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Crystal Palace in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Aston Villa in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $627.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Aston Villa scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Aston Villa, Crystal Palace scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 6 Aston Villa matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Crystal Palace x Aston Villa, with Crystal Palace as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Crystal Palace conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Aston Villa conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Crystal Palace has won all the last 4 matches playing at home against Aston Villa.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa:

Lets analyze the match between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa at Selhurst Park, which is Crystal Palaces usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. 🏟️

📈 Crystal Palace has been struggling offensively and defensively at home, averaging 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per game recently. In the last 5 home games in the Premier League, they havent won any matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), scoring only 4 goals and conceding 9. Meanwhile, Aston Villa is performing much better away: averaging about 2 goals per game in recent away matches in the league, with a very positive recent record (4 wins and only one loss in the last five away games). This shows Villa is more offensively sharp and has been achieving consistent results even when away from their stadium.

The median odds indicate a balance between a home win (2.58) and an away win (2.65), with a slightly less likely draw (3.4). After normalizing the implied probabilities of the median odds, we get approximately: Crystal Palace win ~37%, draw ~29%, Aston Villa win ~34%. Considering recent team statistics — especially the defensive fragility of the Eagles at home against the offensive strength of the Villans — I would adjust to something like: Crystal Palace win ~33%, draw ~27%, Aston Villa win ~40%. This suggests a slight favoritism towards Aston Villa.

Calculating fair odds based on this analysis gives values close to: Home @3.03 | Draw @3.70 | Away @2.50.

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (Home @3; Draw @3.3; Away @2.4), we see value in betting on the home team according to our initial model due to the positive EV calculated by Bets Kenya (+12%), but my view differs because recent data shows Crystal Palace is in a poor phase playing at their own stadium while Aston Villa is on a winning streak in recent away matches.

Therefore, despite the final odds for the away team being lower (@2.4), I believe betting on Aston Villa might be safer due to their recent consistency — but with no significant expected value above +5% given the low final odds.

📰 About recent news: Crystal Palace faces significant defensive issues with injuries to right-back Daniel Muñoz and the temporary departure of Ismaila Sarr for the Africa Cup of Nations; they are also trying to strengthen the squad after a poor run without home wins since last November.
Aston Villa is motivated after a good win against Nottingham Forest recently, with John McGinn scoring twice; coach Unai Emery praised their resilience but called for attention to basic errors — signaling full focus on this important match.

Suggestion: Although the model suggests a home win with a positive expected value (+12%), I disagree based on the detailed analysis of recent statistics combined with injury news at the home team.
I would cautiously bet on a win or draw for Aston Villa, seeking safety given the Eagles current poor phase playing at Selhurst Park.
The expected value of this bet should be close to or slightly below zero given current odds — making it a more conservative bet to minimize risks in a balanced but currently unfavorable matchup for the home team.

Good luck! ⚽🔥

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Analysis from Crystal Palace x Aston Villa for the England Premier League – 7 of January

Latest news about Crystal Palace x Aston Villa

Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace had a mixed start in 2026, suffering a 2-0 defeat to Newcastle, where Oliver Glasner criticized the teams inability to defend set pieces, before earning a 1-1 draw with Fulham, ending a three-match losing streak; meanwhile, the club completed a record signing of £35 million for Tottenham winger Brennan Johnson – who signed a four-and-a-half-year contract, took the number 11 shirt, and was available for the match against Newcastle – as they seek a new right-back after Daniel Muñozs knee injury and monitor several free agents (Marc Guehi, Daichi Kamada, Nathaniel Clyne, Jefferson Lerma, and Naouirou Ahamada); Manchester United showed interest in forward Jean-Philippe Mateta, and the Eagles remain active in the January transfer window as they look to strengthen the squad for the second half of the season.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa started 2026 with mixed results, bouncing back from a 4-1 loss to Arsenal at the end of December with a commanding 3-1 victory over Nottingham Forest in the Premier League on January 3, where Ollie Watkins opened the scoring and John McGinn scored twice to move Villa to second place, while Morgan Gibbs-White reduced the deficit for Forest before a mistake by John Victor sealed the win; coach Unai Emery praised the teams resilience and offensive intent but highlighted the need to eliminate basic errors, confirming that the club will seek to end Harvey Elliotts season-long loan from Liverpool after admitting they had no intention of signing the midfielder when the deal was made.

Table analysis for the game between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa

Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace is currently in 14th place with 27 points, far from European competition spots and comfortably above the relegation zone. With this position and points, the match against Aston Villa has moderate importance for Palace: its a good opportunity to earn points that ensure a more comfortable stay in the middle of the table, avoiding final tight spots. However, the team is already out of the race for continental tournament spots, so the game is not decisive for their larger goals.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa holds 3rd place with 42 points, securing a direct spot in the Champions League. This match is very important to keep pressure on leaders Arsenal and Manchester City, as well as to distance nearby rivals in the race for these valuable spots. A victory would secure crucial points at this stage of the season, consolidating the team among the top teams in the league and helping to maintain the gap with competitors.

Summary: The game is clearly important for Aston Villa, which fights for Champions League positions, while for Crystal Palace it is more a chance to solidify their position outside danger, with less decisive impact. Therefore, the match is important for one team and of moderate relevance for the other.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Crystal Palace x Aston Villa

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Crystal Palace x Aston Villa right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1460156 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Should you bet on Crystal Palace?

🔵 Crystal Palace: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 33.77% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.60. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 340 times – profiting $544.00;
• And would lose other 660 times – losing -$660.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$116.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 30.34%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $720.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$20.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on Aston Villa worth it?

🔴 Aston Villa: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 35.89% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.62. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 360 times – this would give you a profit of $583.20
• And would have lost other 640 times – with a loss of -$640.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$56.80.

Handicaps analysis for the match Crystal Palace x Aston Villa

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Crystal Palace
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Crystal Palace x Aston Villa

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Crystal Palace, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Crystal Palace.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Crystal Palace x Aston Villa

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.