Internacional x Novo Hamburgo Betting tips for January 11 in Brazil Campeonato Gaucho
| 📅 11/1/2026 21:00 |
 Internacional1.71 |
X 3.70 |
Novo Hamburgo  4.45 |
This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Internacional x Novo Hamburgo:
🔮 Internacional wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Internacional, you can win up to $855.00!
The main points for the tip for Internacional x Novo Hamburgo:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Internacional in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-163.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Novo Hamburgo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-347.0.
👉 Novo Hamburgo did not concede a goal in the last 4 matches as away team.
👉 Novo Hamburgo did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Internacional scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Novo Hamburgo matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Internacional x Novo Hamburgo, with Internacional as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Internacional conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 road matches, Novo Hamburgo has not lost any of them.
🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Internacional vs Novo Hamburgo?
Lets analyze the match between Internacional and Novo Hamburgo at Beira-Rio Stadium, home of Internacional, which has a strong recent record. The home team scored 8 goals and conceded 4 in their last 5 home games, with 2 wins and no losses, showing defensive and offensive solidity. Meanwhile, Novo Hamburgo away scored only 3 goals and conceded just 1 in their last five away games, but with more draws (3) than wins (1), indicating a more cautious approach.
The median odds clearly favor Internacional (1.56), with a draw around 4.05 and an away win much less likely at 5.78. After normalizing the implied probabilities of these odds, we estimate approximate fair probabilities: Internacional win around ~60%, draw ~23%, and Novo Hamburgo win ~17%. This aligns with Internacionals superior offensive stats at home — average goals per game are double that of the visiting team — plus more accurate shots (6 vs 4).
Considering recent news 📰: Internacional has lost key defensive and midfield players due to high-value sales, along with significant injuries that could impact their defensive performance; however, reinforcements have already been signed to cover these departures. On the other hand, Novo Hamburgo arrives motivated after recent promotion to the state elite, maintaining their championship-winning Série A2 squad under experienced management.
In tactical terms 📈: Internacional has a higher average possession (48%) compared to visitors (42%), but this isnt enough to diminish the offensive strength of the disciplined visitors who defend well away from home; still, playing at Beira-Rio carries significant weight due to historical tradition.
Analyzing the final odds offered by bookmakers: Inters victory is priced at 1.75, while our fair calculation suggests something close to or even below that due to the actual favoritism; a draw is priced around 3.75 versus our fair estimate near the average values; the away win pays about 4.20, but our assessment indicates a lower probability for this outcome.
Expected value analysis based on our adjusted model: betting on Inters victory offers a significant positive value (>5%), while a draw or away win does not present attractive expected value given the risks involved.
Compared to the Bets Kenya model: it also indicates strong favoritism for Inter with predicted odds very low (~1.36), reflecting high confidence in the home win — I fully agree! Its high positive EV confirms this as a good market opportunity.
Conclusion: Betting on Sport Club Internacionals victory is clearly the best choice here! Despite recent losses of key players due to expensive sales and some injuries 📰, playing at Beira-Rio gives a huge advantage to the traditional Gaucho team that has been performing well offensively at home 📈.
Betting on this option offers an excellent expected value above +20%, aligned with current statistics and qualitative analyses.
Avoid draws or bets on Novo Hamburgo as they do not offer enough value relative to the evident risks in this match.
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Internacional x Novo Hamburgo?
If you want to take a look at more options of betting websites, we, from the Clube, have listed our favorites for you. Right below you can check the best kenyan betting sites from 2026, carefully analysed by us. Pick yours and start betting now on Internacional x Novo Hamburgo:
Analysis from Internacional x Novo Hamburgo for the Brazil Campeonato Gaucho – 11 of January
🏟️ Internacional X Novo Hamburgo – Brazil Campeonato Gaucho
📅 11 of January, 2026 – 21:00
🔵 Internacional – Winning probability: 72.12% | Fair line: 1.39
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 13.38% | Fair line: 7.47
🔴 Novo Hamburgo – Winning probability: 14.51% | Fair line: 6.89
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Internacional
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
Latest news on the match between Internacional and Novo Hamburgo
Sport Club Internacional: Sport Club Internacional started the 2026 pre-season at CT Parque Gigante on January 3rd, with the main squad gathered under the command of Paulo Pezzolano and the presence of the newly appointed executive Fabinho Soldado; despite renewals of key players such as midfielder Alan Patrick, defender Braian Aguirre, and center-back Gabriel Mercado, the club lost three starters – defender Vitão was sold to Flamengo for over R$ 65 million, midfielder Luis Otávio transferred to Orlando City for about US$ 3.2 million (R$ 17.75 million), and forward Ricardo Mathias to Al Ahli of Saudi Arabia for 10 million euros (approx. R$ 65.6 million) – and still faces injuries to Thiago Maia (muscle strain) and Alan Rodríguez (partial plantar fascia rupture), while the management prioritizes signing right-footed defenders to replace Vitão, continues searching for reinforcements in midfield and attack, and has already secured the arrival of forward Carbonero (rights from Racing) and defender Victor Gabriel (from Sport).
Novo Hamburgo: Novo Hamburgo began 2026 with a return to the Gauchão elite after promotion achieved in 2025, and the club has already set ambitious goals to ensure a national calendar in 2027, including maintaining the state first division and securing a spot in Série D. Under coach Rogério Zimmermann, the management renewed contracts of 14 players, highlighting goalkeeper Omar, captain midfielder Amaral, and attacking midfielder Allison, scorer of the winning goal in the final against Inter-SM. The team kept the core of the Série A2 champion squad, played five friendly matches in the pre-season starting November 5th — the most recent against Caxias — and will debut in the Gauchão away against Internacional this Sunday at 6 pm, at Beira-Rio.
Table analysis for the match between Internacional and Novo Hamburgo
Internacional: Internacional is in the Serie A1 of the 2026 Gaúcho Championship, Group A, starting the competition still with 0 points in the 6th round out of 6. The team is in the playoff qualification zone but needs strong performances in the rounds to secure a spot. The match against Novo Hamburgo is the first for both, making this confrontation crucial to start the campaign with an important victory that can boost confidence and give an advantage in the standings. A loss or draw could complicate the path to qualification.
Novo Hamburgo: Novo Hamburgo is in Serie A1, Group B, also starting the 2026 Gaúcho Championship with 0 points in the 6th round, the first of the tournament. The team also aims for playoff qualification, so the match against Internacional is key to establishing a good start and earning valuable points. Beating a direct rival can be decisive for final positioning and team morale. A negative result could pressure future results.
Summary: This match is of HIGH importance for both teams, as it is the opening game of the 2026 Gaúcho Championship and involves two teams seeking playoff qualification. The result could significantly impact confidence and initial standings, influencing future performance. A victory here could set the pace for upcoming rounds in a short, intense competition with only 6 group stage rounds.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Internacional x Novo Hamburgo
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Internacional x Novo Hamburgo right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1460859 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Should you bet on Internacional?
🔵 Internacional: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 72.12% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.71. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 720 times – profiting $511.20;
- And would have lost other 280 times – with a loss of -$280.00 because of them.
So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$231.20.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.38% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 130 times – this would give you a profit of $351.00
- And would lose other 870 times – losing -$870.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$519.00.
Is it worth betting on Novo Hamburgo?
🔴 Novo Hamburgo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.51%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 150 times – this would give you a profit of $517.50
- And would lose other 850 times – having a loss of -$850.00 with them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$332.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Internacional x Novo Hamburgo
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -1.25 Internacional
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Internacional x Novo Hamburgo
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -1.25 Internacional and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -1.0 Internacional.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -1.0 Internacional.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Internacional x Novo Hamburgo
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 3.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.75 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.
