UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon Betting tips for January 11 in Portugal Liga 3
| 📅 11/1/2026 20:00 |
 UD Santarem3.20 |
X 2.88 |
Atletico CP Lisbon  2.30 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon:
🔮 Atletico CP Lisbon wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Atletico CP Lisbon, you can win up to $1150.00!
Important information for your tip for UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon:
👉 If you had bet $100 on UD Santarem in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-305.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Atletico CP Lisbon in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-5.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Atletico CP Lisbon scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 UD Santarem matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 6 Atletico CP Lisbon matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 road matches, Atletico CP Lisbon has not lost any of them.
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon?
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Analysis from UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon for the Portugal Liga 3 – 11 of January
🏟️ UD Santarem X Atletico CP Lisbon – Portugal Liga 3
📅 11 of January, 2026 – 20:00
🔵 UD Santarem – Winning probability: 23.17% | Fair line: 4.32
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 30.50% | Fair line: 3.28
🔴 Atletico CP Lisbon – Winning probability: 46.34% | Fair line: 2.16
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 UD Santarem
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks
Tips for the 1×2 market for UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon
Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1460859 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Is it worth betting on UD Santarem?
🔵 UD Santarem: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 23.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.20. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 230 times – this would give you a profit of $506.00
- And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$264.00.
Is it worth betting on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.5% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.88. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 300 times – having a profit of $564.00;
- And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$136.00.
Should you bet on Atletico CP Lisbon?
🔴 Atletico CP Lisbon: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 46.34% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.30. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 460 times – profiting $598.00;
- And would lose other 540 times – losing -$540.00 with them.
That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$58.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.25 UD Santarem
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 UD Santarem and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 UD Santarem. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for UD Santarem x Atletico CP Lisbon
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.00 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.
