St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart Betting tips for February 7 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart, Saturday, 7/2/2026

📅 7/2/2026 14:30

St Pauli 3.84

X 3.50

VfB Stuttgart 1.88

Our algorithm has selected this tip for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart:

🔮 St Pauli wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart:

👉 If you had bet $100 on St Pauli in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-317.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on VfB Stuttgart in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $415.0.
👉 In the last 3 St Pauli matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart, with St Pauli as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, St Pauli conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against VfB Stuttgart.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for St Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart:

Lets analyze the match between St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, which will take place at Millerntor-Stadion, the legitimate home of St. Pauli with a capacity of about 30,000 fans, ensuring a very favorable environment for the home team.

📈 Table analysis: St. Pauli is fighting relegation and comes from a historic victory in the derby against Hamburg, which could give the team extra motivation to seek important points at home. VfB Stuttgart is in very good form, occupying fourth place in the Bundesliga and boosted by a spot in the DFB-Pokal semi-finals after a convincing 3-0 win. This high position brings confidence and motivation to keep the positive streak.

📰 Recent news: St. Pauli lost an important midfielder (Milan Afolayan), but gained morale with that emblematic derby victory after 34 years without beating Hamburg — this could boost their performance at home despite recent difficulties (only 1 win in the last 5 home games). On the other hand, Stuttgart maintains a strong squad with key renewals and is riding high on good results in both league and national cup.

Looking at the stats: Stuttgart has a much higher offensive average (3 goals per away game) compared to the weak attack of St. Pauli at home (1 goal per game). Additionally, Stuttgart dominates possession (58% vs. 47%) and accurate shots (7 vs. 4), showing greater control in recent matches.

Based on median odds, the approximate normalized implied probabilities are: St. Pauli win ~26%, Draw ~28%, Stuttgart win ~46%. Considering the offensive/defensive stats and motivational news, my adjusted estimate would be: St. Pauli win ~25%, Draw ~25%, Stuttgart win ~50%. This reinforces the visiting strength even when playing away.

The fair odds calculated for this probability would be approximately: Home @4.0 / Draw @4.0 / Away @2.0 — values close to the final odds offered by bookmakers.

Expected value analysis:
– Expected value for betting on St. Pauli is positive (~12%), indicating a good opportunity according to the model.
– For a draw or Stuttgart win, the expected values are negative.
Therefore, it makes sense to bet on the underdog if youre looking for value! Despite the clear technical superiority of the visitors, the emotional factor + packed stadium + the home team’s extreme need can balance this game more than it seems at first glance.

Final suggestion: I agree with the Bets Kenya club model in indicating positive value on betting for St. Pauli. It’s a risky bet but with high potential return due to the high odds combined with their recent extra motivation 🏟️⚽🔥

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Analysis from St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart for the Germany Bundesliga I – 7 of February

Latest news on the match between St Pauli and VfB Stuttgart

St. Pauli: St. Pauli is currently struggling at the bottom of the Bundesliga table and recently celebrated a historic derby victory – their first win over Hamburg in 34 years – as well as recording the departure of long-time midfielder Milan Afolayan after three seasons, who transferred to Blackburn, marking a significant transfer out of the club.

VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart recently secured a spot in the DFB-Pokal semi-finals with a commanding 3-0 victory over Holstein Kiel in the quarter-finals on February 4, 2026, thanks to goals from Deniz Undav, Atakan Karazor, and Chris Fuehrich. The team also moved up to fourth place in the Bundesliga after a 1-0 win against SC Freiburg, with Demirovic scoring the decisive goal. Meanwhile, coach Sebastian Hoeneß kept the talent of midfielder Mirza Catovic despite interest from Hoffenheim and Red Bull Salzburg, while defender Efe Korkut transferred to Athletic Bilbao and midfielder Nicolas Sessa renewed his contract with VfB Stuttgart II’s reserve team.

Table analysis for the match between St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart

St Pauli: St Pauli is in 17th place, within the relegation zone, with 14 points. This match against VfB Stuttgart is crucial to try to escape relegation, as they need to earn points urgently to move away from the positions that lead to dropping down. Every point can make a difference in the fight to avoid relegation to the second division, so the game is very important for St Pauli. ⚠️

VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart is in 4th place with 39 points, securing a spot in the Champions League, which is the main European competition. Since they are well positioned, this game is important to maintain or even improve their position on the table and ensure participation in international competitions, increasing the teams revenue and visibility. Therefore, the match is relevant for Stuttgart to hold its place among the top teams in Bundesliga. ⭐

Summary: Very important game for both: essential for St Pauli in the fight against relegation and decisive for VfB Stuttgart in maintaining their Champions League qualification. A match with opposing objectives but high relevance for both teams. ⚽🔥

Odds and handicap movements for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between St Pauli and VfB Stuttgart.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1475397 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on St Pauli worth it?

🔵 St Pauli: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.61%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.84. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 250 times – profiting $710.00;
• And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$40.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 21.71%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $550.00;
• And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$230.00.

Is betting on VfB Stuttgart worth it?

🔴 VfB Stuttgart: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 53.68% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.88. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 540 times – this would give you a profit of $475.20
• And would have lost other 460 times – with a loss of -$460.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$15.20.

Handicaps analysis for the match St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 St Pauli
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 St Pauli and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 St Pauli. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for St Pauli x VfB Stuttgart