Mainz x Augsburg Betting tips for February 7 in Germany Bundesliga I
| 📅 7/2/2026 14:30 |
 Mainz2.00 |
X 3.45 |
Augsburg  3.47 |
This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Mainz x Augsburg:
🔮 Mainz wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Mainz, you can win up to $1000.00!
Important information for your tip for Mainz x Augsburg:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Mainz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $80.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Augsburg in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $1200.0.
👉 In the last 6 matches as the away team, Augsburg conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Mainz has not lost any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Augsburg playing at home.
🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Mainz vs Augsburg:
Lets analyze the match between Mainz and Augsburg at Mewa Arena, which is the official stadium of Mainz, ensuring the home advantage for them. 🏟️
📈 Looking at recent stats, Mainz has a solid home performance with 3 wins in their last 5 home games and an average of 1 goal scored per game at home. They also maintain good ball possession (51%) and create more offensive chances (14 shots per game) compared to Augsburg, which concedes more goals away (average of 2 goals conceded). Augsburg is facing defensive difficulties away from home, having lost 4 of their last 5 away matches.
📰 Recent news reports indicate Mainz suffered a key injury with forward Benedict Hollerbach but quickly strengthened their attack with Sheraldo Becker on loan. This should help maintain their offensive capacity. Augsburg has brought in defensive reinforcements and young attackers to try to improve their unstable season performance.
Analyzing the median odds offered by betting sites: Mainz victory is around 2.01, with draw and Augsburg win both close to 3.46.
Normalizing the implied probabilities from the median odds gives approximately: Mainz win ~48%, draw ~28%, Augsburg win ~28%. Considering the statistical data and news indicating greater defensive and offensive stability for Mainz playing at home against a defensively vulnerable visiting team, my fair estimate would be close to this or slightly favoring the home team.
The Bets Kenya model indicates positive value only on the Mainz bet (EV +6.27%), while draw (-10.88%) and away win (-18%) do not show positive expected value — I fully agree! The model seems well aligned with the current team realities.
Suggestion: bet on Mainz to win, as they have good recent home stats and a key attacking reinforcement after an important injury; Augsburg faces clear difficulties both defensively and offensively away from home.
Extra tip: stay alert to weather conditions or final lineups close to the match to confirm this trend before placing your bet!
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Analysis from Mainz x Augsburg for the Germany Bundesliga I – 7 of February
🏟️ Mainz X Augsburg – Germany Bundesliga I
📅 7 of February, 2026 – 14:30
🔵 Mainz – Winning probability: 53.28% | Fair line: 1.88
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 24.72% | Fair line: 4.05
🔴 Augsburg – Winning probability: 22.00% | Fair line: 4.55
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Mainz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks
The latest news about Mainz x Augsburg
Mainz 05: Mainz 05 has been busy during the January transfer window: after striker Benedict Hollerbach suffered a confirmed Achilles tendon rupture that will keep him out for the rest of the season, the club secured the loan of forward Sheraldo Becker from CA Osasuna, reuniting him with former coach Urs Fischer and providing a direct replacement for the injured player. At the same time, winger Arnaud Nordin was loaned to Stade Rennes, while young Finland U-21 international Otto Ruoppi signed a long-term contract that will see him join the squad in summer 2026, provided Mainz maintains its Bundesliga status. Silas has been a regular starter in the last three matches, and the club continues to seek additional options to strengthen the attack after Hollerbachs injury.
FC Augsburg: FC Augsburg has been active in the January-February 2026 transfer window, securing a loan for defender Arthur Chaves from TSG Hoffenheim, which includes an option to buy for approximately €6 million, and strengthening their attack with the signing of 19-year-old Nigerian forward Uchenna Ogundu from Alanyaspor, on a long-term contract until 2031. The club also confirmed a new contract for captain Jeffrey Gouweleeuw, extending his stay until 2027, while midfielder Arne Maier left for his former youth club, Újpest Budapest, in Hungary.
Table analysis for the game between Mainz and Augsburg
Mainz: Mainz is currently in 16th place, in the Relegation Playoffs zone, with 18 points. The team is very close to the direct relegation zone and desperately needs points to try to move away from the drop. This match is extremely important for Mainz to avoid relegation and secure a stay in the Bundesliga. Every point is crucial to keep the chance of escaping relegation. ⚠️
Augsburg: Augsburg holds 11th place, with 22 points, in a relatively safe zone, far from relegation but also away from European competition spots. Although the team is not at immediate risk of relegation, the match remains relevant to improve their position and seek a better campaign to climb the table, aiming for more comfortable positions for the next season. It is an important game to maintain stability and competitive condition. ⚽️
Summary: The match is very important for Mainz, fighting against relegation, while for Augsburg, the game is important to ensure stability in the table and seek promotion. In other words, the confrontation is more decisive for Mainz but relevant for both teams.
How the handicap and odds moved for Mainz x Augsburg
Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.
Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Mainz x Augsburg (1X2, handicap and goals).
📊 With a variation of 0.00%, the odds for Mainz are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @2.05 for Mainz and now the odds are @2.05.
📊 The odds for Draw had a slight Raised of 5.88%: the market opened with odds of @3.4 for Draw and now the odds are @3.6.
📊 With a variation of 2.94%, the odds for Augsburg are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.4 for Augsburg and now the odds are @3.5.
📊 The market increased home team´s favoritism: the handicap that opened at -0.25 is now at -0.50 for Mainz.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 2.5 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Mainz x Augsburg
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Mainz and Augsburg.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1475397 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Is betting on Mainz worth it?
🔵 Mainz: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 53.28%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 530 times – having a profit of $530.00;
- And would lose other 470 times – having a loss of -$470.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$60.00.
Is it a good idea to bet on draw?
⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.72%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.45. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 250 times – this would give you a profit of $612.50
- And would lose other 750 times – having a loss of -$750.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$137.50.
Is it worth betting on Augsburg?
🔴 Augsburg: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.0% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.47. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 220 times – profiting $543.40;
- And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.
We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$236.60.
Handicaps analysis for the match Mainz x Augsburg
Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.
This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Mainz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Mainz x Augsburg
⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Mainz, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Mainz.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Mainz.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Mainz x Augsburg
⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.
The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Mainz x Augsburg
Who is the favourite: Mainz or Augsburg?
From our analysis, the team that comes out as favourite is Mainz, with a win probability of 53.28%. Still, favourite does not guarantee a win!
Who will win: Mainz x Augsburg?
It is important to remember that sports betting offers no guarantees. However, our analysis indicates that Mainz is more likely to win, with an estimated probability of 53.28%. Betting involves risk—bet responsibly!
What are the chances of Mainz beating Augsburg today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Mainz would take victory in roughly 53 of them versus Augsburg.
What are the chances of Augsburg beating Mainz today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Augsburg would take victory in roughly 22 of them against Mainz.
Which team should I bet on: Mainz or Augsburg?
Smart bettors seek bets with positive expected value. According to our analysis, the recommended bet is: Mainz wins, with an expected value of 9.04%. Remember to bet responsibly and manage your bankroll: dont stake over 2%!
How much is Mainz paying today? See what you can win by betting on Mainz x Augsburg:
The odds for Mainz to beat Augsburg today are around 2.00. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh2000.00 if Mainz wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Augsburg paying today? See what you can win by betting on Mainz x Augsburg:
The odds for Augsburg to beat Mainz today are around 3.47. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh3470.00 if Augsburg wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
