Manchester City x Fulham Betting tips for February 11 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Manchester City x Fulham, Wednesday, 11/2/2026

📅 11/2/2026 19:30

Manchester City 1.37

X 5.00

Fulham 7.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Manchester City x Fulham:

🔮 Tied Match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on a tie, you can win up to $2500.00!

🔮 Fulham wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fulham, you can win up to $3750.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Manchester City x Fulham:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Manchester City in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $37.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Fulham in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-240.0.
👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Manchester City scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Fulham, Manchester City scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Manchester City x Fulham, with Manchester City as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Fulham conceded at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Manchester City conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Fulham.
👉 Manchester City is good playing home: it has 4 wins in a row in its last matches at home.
👉 Manchester City has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Fulham.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Manchester City vs Fulham:

Lets analyze the match between Manchester City and Fulham at the Etihad Stadium, home of Manchester City, which has a capacity of 55,000 fans and is the usual venue for the home team’s games, ensuring the home advantage.

📈 Positioning analysis: Manchester City is fighting for the Premier League title, needing to close the gap to Arsenal. This adds extra motivation to win at home. Fulham is in eighth place, seeking to get closer to the top teams and maintain their recent good form.

The recent performance shows a clear dominance of Manchester City in their home games: scored 18 goals in the last 5 home matches (average of 3.6 goals per game) and conceded only 3 (0.6 per game), with four wins and no losses in this period. Additionally, they have a high possession average (59%) and shots on target (15 per game), showing total control of matches at the Etihad.

On the other hand, Fulham has more modest numbers away from home: averaging 1 goal per game in the last five away matches and conceding about 1 goal per game; they have only one recent away win with three losses in the same period.

Based on median odds, the implied normalized probabilities are:

• Manchester City win: ~68%
• Draw: ~19%
• Fulham win: ~13%

Given Manchester City’s clear statistical dominance in attack, defense, and possession at their traditional stadium, combined with the motivation to directly compete for the title against a less consistent away team like Fulham, my fair estimate would be approximately:

• Manchester City win: 70%
• Draw: 18%
• Fulham win: 12%

Adjusting the fair odds based on this probability, we get values close to (no margin):

• Home (Manchester City): 1.43
• Draw: 5.56
• Away (Fulham): 8.33

Comparing with the final odds, bookmakers are offering slightly better odds for a draw and away win compared to the fair estimate — this could indicate value in these bets if you want to bet more conservatively or look for surprises.

However, considering the very strong recent data favoring Manchester City playing at Etihad Stadium — where they have been nearly unbeatable — I see higher positive expected value in betting on their victory even paying a little less (>20% EV positive according to Bets Kenya model confirms this!) while draw or away win have high negative EV as the model indicates.

It’s very important to highlight 📰 that recent news shows Pep Guardiola emphasizes the need to reduce the gap to leader Arsenal after squad reshuffling but maintains strong confidence in the current starting team after a dramatic win against Liverpool; meanwhile, Fulham has been suffering recent league defeats without significant reinforcements still available for this immediate match.

Therefore, my recommendation is to bet on Manchester City’s clear victory in this match! ⚽🔥 They have everything to dominate this game both statistically and in current motivation.
Trust the solid favoritism here! 💪🏆

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Manchester City x Fulham?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2026. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Manchester City x Fulham for the England Premier League – 11 of February

Latest news about Manchester City x Fulham

Manchester City: Manchester City achieved a dramatic 2-1 victory at Anfield on February 8, 2026, with Bernardo Silva equalizing before Erling Haaland converted a late penalty to secure the win and keep the Premier League title race alive; Rayan Cherkis late goal was disallowed after VAR review, and Dominik Szoboszlai was sent off, prompting Gary Neville to lament a “golden moment.” Pep Guardiola held a press conference before the match and, after the victory, emphasized the need for “something really special” to reduce the six-point gap to Arsenal, while acknowledging the teams recent reshuffle and occasional inconsistency. Marc Guehi remains unavailable for the upcoming Carabao Cup final, and the team will seek to gain momentum in their next league game against Fulham later this week, with Antoine Semenyo praising Guardiolas philosophy of freedom after a strong start at Etihad.

Fulham: Fulham suffered a 2-1 defeat to Everton at Craven Cottage on February 7, 2026, with an own goal by Vitalii Mykolenko in the first half giving the visitors an early lead, before Kiernan Dewsbury-Halls equalizer and a bizarre own goal by Bernd Leno secured the three points for Everton, leaving Fulham in eighth place in the Premier League, just two points behind Liverpool; the team welcomed back Kenny Tete after injury, had the newly signed Oscar Bobb, acquired for £27 million, on the bench alongside loaned player Tyrique George, while Vitalii Mykolenko returned to the squad and Jarrad Branthwaite was on the bench. The January transfer window saw the acquisition of Bobb and ongoing interest in other negotiations, such as a potential departure of Traoré to West Ham.

England Premier League table analysis for Manchester City x Fulham

Manchester City: Manchester City is in 2nd place with 50 points, 6 points behind the leader Arsenal, with real chances of fighting for the title at this point of the season. Since we are in round 26, every point is valuable to try to reach the top or secure a direct spot in the Champions League. Therefore, the match against Fulham is quite important to keep the pressure at the top of the table and reduce the gap to the first place.

Fulham: Fulham is in 10th position with 34 points, far from the European qualification zone and well away from relegation. The team is in a relatively comfortable situation, and the match against Manchester City should not significantly impact their stay in the Premier League or their ambitions this season. Thus, for Fulham, this game can be considered less important in the fight for qualification.

Summary: The match is important for Manchester City in their pursuit of the title and consolidation in the Champions League, while for Fulham, the game is less relevant as the team is out of the race for major objectives and not at immediate risk of relegation.

Odds and handicap movements for Manchester City x Fulham

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Manchester City x Fulham.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the Match Odds market for Manchester City x Fulham

When the best bet on Manchester City x Fulham is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1478516 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Is betting on Manchester City worth it?

🔵 Manchester City: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 59.74% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.37. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 600 times – profiting $222.00;
• And would lose other 400 times – having a loss of -$400.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$178.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 21.91%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 5.00. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 220 times – this would give you a profit of $880.00
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$100.00.

Should you bet on Fulham?

🔴 Fulham: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.35% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 7.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 180 times – this would give you a profit of $1170.00
• And would lose other 820 times – losing -$820.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$350.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Manchester City x Fulham

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Manchester City
⚽ Expected goals: 3.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Manchester City x Fulham

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Manchester City, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.5 Manchester City.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 1.00, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.5 Fulham.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Manchester City x Fulham

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.25 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 3.00 goals.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the tip for Manchester City x Fulham