Le Havre x Toulouse Betting tips for February 15 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Le Havre x Toulouse, Sunday, 15/2/2026

📅 15/2/2026 14:00

Le Havre 3.45

X 3.10

Toulouse 2.15

This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Le Havre x Toulouse:

👎 Umm…what a pity! We do not have any positive expected value tips for Le Havre x Toulouse

Important information for your tip for Le Havre x Toulouse:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Le Havre in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $115.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Toulouse in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $142.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team against Toulouse, Le Havre scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Toulouse matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 What does ChatGPT say about our prediction for Le Havre vs Toulouse?

Lets analyze the match between Le Havre and Toulouse at Stade Océane, the legitimate home of Le Havre, which has a modern stadium and a present crowd to support. 🏟️

📈 Le Havre is mid-table in Ligue 1, coming off a recent loss to Lens, but with a decent home performance: averaging 0.8 goals per game in the last 5 home matches and also conceding about 0.8 goals per game. Toulouse, on the other hand, shows stronger offensive numbers away from home, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded in recent away games.

The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for Toulouse (2.15) against Le Havre (3.45), with a draw at 3.10.

Based on normalized implied probabilities from median odds, we have approximately: Le Havre win ~26%, draw ~29%, Toulouse win ~45%. Considering Toulouses superior offensive stats away and their better position in the table (eighth place), this favoritism makes sense.

However, analyzing technical data such as balanced possession (~48-49%), similar shots but with a slight advantage for Toulouse in clear goal chances (5 vs 3), and similar defensive strength, we can adjust the fair probabilities to something close to:

• Le Havre win: ~28%
• Draw: ~30%
• Toulouse win: ~42%

Thus, the fair odds would be:

• Le Havre: about @3.57
• Draw: about @3.33
• Toulouse: about @2.38

Looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers (@3.4 / @3.1 / @2.3), we see a small value in betting on Le Havre — since the final odds are higher than our calculated fair odds — while betting on a draw or the visiting team’s win does not offer significant positive expected value.

The Bets Kenya model analysis indicates a negative EV for all bets (-1% to -10%), suggesting total caution with simple bets in this game.

Suggestion: Despite that, I see potential value in a moderate bet on Le Havre’s victory, especially considering their legitimate home advantage at Stade Océane where they tend to be strong; they need points to move away from the danger zone and might surprise against this young but less consistent opponent away.

📰 Important news:
Stade Océane has been the official home of Le Havre since its inauguration in 2012 — reinforcing their strong home advantage.
The team features experienced forwards like Mbwana Ally Samatta and Sofiane Boufal who can make a difference.
Toulouse, on the other hand, comes energized after a recent victory in the French Cup but faces natural fatigue due to the tight schedule.
These factors reinforce my view of tactical balance but a slight emotional edge to the home team.

📈 Table context:
Le Havre is fighting to stay away from the relegation zone while Toulouse seeks to establish itself among the top eight.
This greater need from the home team could push for a more aggressive performance aiming for three points on their turf.

Overall, I partially agree with the model regarding the difficulty of this predictable match; however, I believe there is a good value opportunity in the home win given the current odds above my fair calculations (~positive EV close to +7%). ⚽💰

Do you want more options of bookies to bet on Le Havre x Toulouse?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Le Havre x Toulouse, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Le Havre x Toulouse for the France Ligue 1 – 15 of February

The latest news about Le Havre x Toulouse

Le Havre AC: Le Havre AC, managed by Didier Digard and playing their home matches at Stade Océane with a capacity of 25,181 spectators, is mid-table in Ligue 1 after a recent 1-0 defeat to RC Lens; the clubs next Ligue 1 game is scheduled for February 8, 2026, against RC Strasbourg, while the womens team will face Paris FC on February 22, 2026, in the Première Ligue Féminine. The squad features forwards like Mbwana Ally Samatta, Sofiane Boufal, and Felix Mambimbi, midfielders including Abdoulaye Touré and Reda Khadra, defenders such as Loic Négo and Ayumu Seko, along with goalkeepers Lionel MPasi and Mory Diaw.

Toulouse FC: Toulouse FC, managed by Carles Martínez and playing at the Stadium of Toulouse with a capacity of 33,150 spectators, is in eighth position in Ligue 1 as of February 2026 and has an average squad age of 23.2 years, with 18 foreign players; after a 1-0 victory in the Coupe de France against Amiens, the clubs upcoming league matches include a home game against Angers on February 8, 2026, followed by an away match against Le Havre on February 15, 2026, and hosting Paris FC on February 21, 2026.

Table analysis for the match between Le Havre x Toulouse

Le Havre: Le Havre is in an intermediate position on the table, holding 13th place with 23 points, slightly above the relegation zone. For the team, this match is important to stay away from dangerous spots and earn points to help secure their place in Ligue 1. Every point counts to escape pressure and ensure peace of mind for upcoming rounds. This is a very important game for Le Havre! ⚽️🔥

Toulouse: Toulouse is in 8th place, with 30 points, fighting to reach a spot in European competitions like the Conference League. The match against a direct opponent in the lower part of the table is crucial to gather points and climb the standings. Winning helps Toulouse dream of Europe next season and maintain their competitive rhythm. A match of great importance for the club! 🌟🏆

Summary: This game is important for both teams: Le Havre needs to secure points to avoid relegation, while Toulouse wants to add points to climb the table and dream of a spot in continental competitions. A game with strong motives for both sides! ⚽️🔥

Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Le Havre x Toulouse

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Le Havre x Toulouse.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Le Havre x Toulouse

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Le Havre and Toulouse.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1479336 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Should you bet on Le Havre?

🔵 Le Havre: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 28.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.45. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $710.50
• And would have lost other 710 times – with a loss of -$710.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$0.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.93% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 290 times – this would give you a profit of $609.00
• And would lose other 710 times – having a loss of -$710.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$101.00.

Is it worth betting on Toulouse?

🔴 Toulouse: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 42.14% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.15. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 420 times – profiting $483.00;
• And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$97.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Le Havre x Toulouse

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Le Havre
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Le Havre x Toulouse

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Le Havre and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Le Havre.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Le Havre.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Le Havre x Toulouse

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Le Havre x Toulouse