Metz x Auxerre Betting tips for February 15 in France Ligue 1

Our betting tip for Metz x Auxerre, Sunday, 15/2/2026

📅 15/2/2026 16:15

Metz 2.65

X 3.00

Auxerre 2.75

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Metz x Auxerre:

🔮 Auxerre wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Auxerre, you can win up to $1375.00!

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Some important points for the tip for Metz x Auxerre:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Metz in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Auxerre in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 Auxerre did not score any goals in the last 3 matches as away team.
👉 In the last 5 Auxerre matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.

🤖 ChatGPT analysis on the prediction for Metz vs Auxerre:

Lets analyze the match between Metz and Auxerre that will take place at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metzs traditional stadium with a capacity of about 30,000 fans and currently undergoing renovations. This gives Metz the home advantage, even with ongoing works.

📈 Table analysis: Metz is in 18th place in Ligue 1, fighting relegation and coming off a goalless draw against Lille. Auxerre has shown offensive difficulties away from home, scoring only 1 goal in the last 5 away games and conceding an average of 1 goal per match. Metzs need for points to escape the danger zone may boost their motivation to seek victory.

Looking at recent stats: Metz has a low average of goals scored at home (0.8 goals per game) and concedes many goals (2.6 goals on average). Auxerre also has offensive issues away from home (0.2 goals scored), but their defense is relatively more solid (average of 1 goal conceded). Shots show Metz creates more chances (12 shots per game) but also suffers defensively.

Calculating fair probabilities based on median odds adjusted for house margins: approximately 37% chance for Metz to win, 33% for a draw, and 30% for Auxerre to win. Considering the statistical data combined with the implicit probabilities of normalized median odds, my estimate is close to this.

However, looking at the final odds offered by bookmakers — Metz @2.875; draw @3; Auxerre @2.625 — there is a slight favoritism towards the visiting team in the final quotes despite the natural advantage of home field being truly Metzs.

The prediction made by the Bets Kenya model indicates a positive expected value only on the visitors win (@2.266), with EV +15%, while bets on a draw or home win show significant negative expected values (-29% and -5%).

My analysis partially agrees with this view: although the visiting team has recently shown weak offensive performance away from home, their defensive system is more consistent compared to the fragile defensive sector of the home team, which has been conceding many goals even playing at their own stadium.

Therefore, I see value in a moderate bet on the victory or even a double result “draw or Auxerre,” as I believe the visiting team can exploit defensive errors of the hosts and surprise in this balanced but unfavorable match for the hosts given their recent poor form.

Conclusion: I recommend caution but see greater value in betting on the win or a draw favorable to Auxerre due to the clear defensive fragility of the home team combined with their urgent need to score points — this could create extra pressure and increase the chances of them making fatal mistakes behind.

Estimated expected value for a bet on the visiting win is around +12%, confirming a good opportunity at the current odds offered by bookmakers.

📰 News:
Recent context shows both teams drawing their last important matches without scoring — reinforcing a low offensive trend especially away from home.
Metz faces a tough sequence including a match against PSG right after this game; this could weigh psychologically.
Auxerre is trying to establish itself under the current coaching, seeking tactical stability mainly away from their usual grounds.
These factors reinforce my assessment of slight tactical balance favoring the visitors due to their relative solidity behind compared to the vulnerability shown by the hosts in recent numbers.

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Analysis from Metz x Auxerre for the France Ligue 1 – 15 of February

Latest news about Metz x Auxerre

Metz: Metz is currently in 18th place in Ligue 1 after a 0-0 draw against Lille on February 6, 2026; their next top-flight match will be against Auxerre on February 15, 2026 at 16:15 UTC, followed by a home game against Paris Saint-Germain on February 21, 2026 at 20:05 UTC. Meanwhile, the reserve team Metz II faces Croix Iris CF on February 14, 2026 in National 3 Group E, the U-19 team plays against Auxerre U-19 on February 15, 2026, and the Metz FC women’s team faces EA Guingamp on February 15, 2026 in Seconde Ligue Women, reflecting a period of mixed results with the recent form of the main team limited to a draw against Lille.

Auxerre: The mens team of Auxerre, managed by coach Christophe Pélissier and playing at Stade de lAbbé-Deschamps with a capacity of 18,541 spectators, is currently competing in Ligue 1; the team recently drew 0-0 with Toulouse and their next fixture is against Paris FC on February 8, 2026, in Ligue 1. Meanwhile, Auxerre IIs reserve team will face AS Saint-Étienne 2 on February 14, 2026, in National 3 Group G, and the clubs womens team, AJ Auxerre, competes in Seconde Ligue Women with their next game against Saint Malo on February 15, 2026.

Table analysis for the game between Metz and Auxerre

Metz: Metz is currently in 18th place in the table, within the relegation zone, with 13 points. The team is fighting to avoid relegation, and this match is an important opportunity to try to earn points and escape the drop. Every point is crucial to leave the relegation zone before the end of the season, making this game very decisive for Metz.

Auxerre: Auxerre is in 16th place, a position that offers the possibility of relegation via playoff with 14 points, two points above Metz. Therefore, the match against Metz is crucial for Auxerre, as winning could give an advantage and help secure a position outside direct relegation, or at least strengthen the fight to stay in Ligue 1. This is a do-or-die game for both teams.

Summary: The game is extremely important for both teams, as Metz and Auxerre are fighting directly to escape relegation. This match could determine who has a better chance to stay in the top tier of French football, making the confrontation decisive and full of pressure. ⚽🔥

How the handicap and odds moved for Metz x Auxerre

Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.

Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Metz x Auxerre (1X2, handicap and goals).

Tips for the 1×2 market for Metz x Auxerre

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Metz and Auxerre.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1479336 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it worth betting on Metz?

🔵 Metz: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 24.38% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.65. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 240 times – this would give you a profit of $396.00
• And would lose other 760 times – losing -$760.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$364.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.49% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 310 times – having a profit of $620.00;
• And would lose other 690 times – losing -$690.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$70.00.

Should you bet on Auxerre?

🔴 Auxerre: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 44.13% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.75. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 440 times – this would give you a profit of $770.00
• And would have lost other 560 times – with a loss of -$560.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$210.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Metz x Auxerre

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Metz
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Metz x Auxerre

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 0.0 Metz, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 0.0 Metz. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Metz x Auxerre

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.

FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Metz x Auxerre