Toulouse x Paris FC Betting tips for February 21 in France Ligue 1
| 📅 21/2/2026 18:00 |
 Toulouse1.91 |
X 3.30 |
Paris FC  4.10 |
This is the bet from our artificial intelligence for Toulouse x Paris FC:
🔮 Paris FC wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Paris FC, you can win up to $2050.00!
Important information for your tip for Toulouse x Paris FC:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Toulouse in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $85.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Paris FC in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $975.0.
🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Toulouse vs Paris FC:
Lets analyze the match Toulouse vs Paris FC that will take place at the Toulouse Stadium, the official home of Toulouse, with a capacity of about 37,000 fans. This ensures the home advantage for Toulouse, which usually performs well at their stadium.
📈 Table analysis: Toulouse is in 10th place and has recently gone through a winless streak in Ligue 1, while Paris FC is lower on the table (15th), fighting relegation and with an irregular campaign. This difference suggests greater motivation for Paris FC to seek points away from home, but also indicates higher technical quality and stability for Toulouse.
Statistically, Toulouse averages about 1 goal scored at home per game and concedes around 1 goal per match. Meanwhile, Paris FC scores about 1 goal away and concedes slightly more (around 1). The home team takes more shots (11 per game vs. 7 for the visitor) and has better defensive performance in recent home matches.
Possession is balanced but slightly favors the visitor (46% vs. 43%), though this does not translate into clear dominance in chances created or expected goals.
The median odds indicate approximate normalized implied probabilities: Toulouse win ~52%, draw ~16%, Paris FC win ~32%. Our internal model predicts very different odds: high value on the visitor with a significant positive expected value (+38%), suggesting an undervaluation of Paris FCs chances by the bookmakers.
However, considering recent statistics — especially the moderate defensive solidity of both teams — and the clear advantage that the Stadium offers Toulouse as a traditional home team, my analysis points to a higher fair probability for the home team to win (~50%), followed by a draw (~25%), and a lower chance for the visitor to win (~25%).
Thus, the fair odds would be approximately: Toulouse victory ~2.0; Draw ~4.0; Paris FC victory ~4.0 — close to the final odds but strongly disagreeing with the internal forecast that overvalues the visitors chance.
Evaluating expected value using these fair odds versus the bookmakers odds, we see a modest positive EV (+6%) for the draw, while bets on wins have negative or neutral EV according to my adjusted view based on recent team data.
📰 News: Toulouses last recent negative result was a narrow loss against Angers with a goal conceded in the 89th minute — showing vulnerability but also competitiveness until the final minutes; Paris FC is going through a tough time in Ligue 1 trying to avoid relegation after a recent heavy defeat (5-0). This reinforces my conservative assessment of their real chances to win away in this tough game at the Stadium.
Final suggestion: I disagree with the bet suggested by the Bets Kenya club model, which indicates high value on the visitor due to detailed recent statistical data combined with current team news and the clear territorial/technical advantage for Toulouse playing at their usual stadium.
My recommendation is to avoid betting on the Parisian victory here because I see high risk despite attractive odds.
A safe bet would be to consider a draw or even a small increase in the home win given their better recent defensive consistency in this championship.
The expected value calculated by my analysis is around +6% only for the draw — so no strong prediction but avoiding high risks by betting against the likely scenario.
Stay tuned for pre-match updates!
Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Toulouse x Paris FC?
If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Toulouse x Paris FC, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:
Analysis from Toulouse x Paris FC for the France Ligue 1 – 21 of February
🏟️ Toulouse X Paris FC – France Ligue 1
📅 21 of February, 2026 – 18:00
🔵 Toulouse – Winning probability: 42.44% | Fair line: 2.36
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 29.88% | Fair line: 3.35
🔴 Paris FC – Winning probability: 27.68% | Fair line: 3.61
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Toulouse
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.25 corner kicks
Latest news on the match between Toulouse and Paris FC
Toulouse: The mens main team of Toulouse, coached by Carles Martínez and playing at the Toulouse Stadium with a capacity of 33,150 spectators, suffered a 1-0 defeat to Angers on February 8, 2026, in Ligue 1, with Lilian Raolisoa scoring in the 89th minute; the clubs womens team, leading the Seconde Ligue Women, achieved a 2-0 victory over OGC Nice on February 14, 2026, maintaining the top position, while midfielder Mark McKenzie participated in the recent 2-1 loss to Le Havre; the next Ligue 1 match for the mens team after the game against Angers has not yet been detailed in recent updates.
Paris FC: Paris FC is facing difficulties in Ligue 1, sitting near the bottom of the table after 21 matches, with a record of five wins, seven draws, and nine losses, totaling 22 points and a goal difference of -8; the clubs recent form shows they have won only five of these games and remain in the relegation battle, while the womens team of Paris FC is scheduled to face Real Madrid in the UEFA Women’s Champions League on February 18, 2026.
Table analysis for the match between Toulouse x Paris FC
Toulouse: Toulouse is in 10th place with 30 points, close to teams with similar scores, indicating a fierce competition for the middle of the table. Although not threatened by relegation nor close to European spots, it is still important to accumulate points to secure a more comfortable position and avoid surprises in the final rounds. This game is relevant to maintain consistency and climb slightly in the standings.
Paris FC: Paris FC is in 15th place with 22 points, near the relegation zone, indicating a delicate situation. The team needs points to distance itself from danger and secure Ligue 1 permanence. This match is crucial for Paris FC because a victory could bring relief in the relegation fight, reducing the risk of entering playoffs or dropping directly.
Summary: The match is especially important for Paris FC, which fights to move away from relegation, and also matters for Toulouse, which seeks stability and to improve its position. Therefore, it is a relevant game for both teams, with different but significant consequences for each. ⚽🔥
Odds and handicap movements for Toulouse x Paris FC
It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Toulouse x Paris FC.
Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.
📊 The odds for Toulouse had a great Raised of 10.54%: the market opened with odds of @1.727 for Toulouse and now the odds are @1.909.
📊 With a variation of -2.86%, the odds for Draw are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @3.5 for Draw and now the odds are @3.4.
📊 The odds for Paris FC had a great Decreased of -11.58%: the market opened with odds of @4.75 for Paris FC and now the odds are @4.2.
📊 The market decreased home team´s favoritism: the handicap that opened at -0.75 is now at -0.50 for Toulouse.
📊 The market expects less goals than when it opened: the goals handicap opened at 2.50 and now is at 2.25 goals.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Toulouse x Paris FC
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Toulouse and Paris FC.
To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1483644 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:
Is betting on Toulouse worth it?
🔵 Toulouse: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 42.44% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.91. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 420 times – profiting $382.20;
- And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$197.80.
Should you bet on draw?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 29.88% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.30. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $690.00
- And would have lost other 700 times – with a loss of -$700.00 because of them.
Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$10.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.
Should you bet on Paris FC?
🔴 Paris FC: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.68%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would hit 280 times – profiting $868.00;
- And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.
It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$148.00.
Handicaps analysis for the match Toulouse x Paris FC
The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Toulouse
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Toulouse x Paris FC
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Toulouse and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Toulouse.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.5 Paris FC.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Toulouse x Paris FC
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.25 goals.
Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.
FAQs: Frequently asked questions about the prediction for Toulouse x Paris FC
Which team is the favourite in Toulouse x Paris FC?
Based on our calculations, the team most likely to win is Toulouse, with an estimated chance of 42.44%. Remember: surprises happen in football!
Who will win: Toulouse x Paris FC?
There are no absolutes in sports betting. Still, our model suggests Toulouse has the better chance to win, with a probability of 42.44%. If you choose to back Toulouse, do so responsibly!
What are the chances of Toulouse beating Paris FC today?
According to our analysis, out of every 100 games we expect Toulouse to win approximately 42 of them against Paris FC.
What are the chances of Paris FC beating Toulouse today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Paris FC would take victory in roughly 28 of them against Toulouse.
Which team should I bet on: Toulouse or Paris FC?
Smart bettors seek bets with positive expected value. According to our analysis, the recommended bet is: Paris FC Wins, with an expected value of 16.34%. Remember to bet responsibly and manage your bankroll: dont stake over 2%!
How much is Toulouse paying today? See what you can win by betting on Toulouse x Paris FC:
The odds for Toulouse to beat Paris FC today are around 1.91. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh1910.00 if Toulouse wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Paris FC paying today? See what you can win by betting on Toulouse x Paris FC:
The odds for Paris FC to beat Toulouse today are around 4.10. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh4100.00 if Paris FC wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
