Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim Betting tips for February 21 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim, Saturday, 21/2/2026

📅 21/2/2026 14:30

Cologne 2.96

X 3.60

TSG Hoffenheim 2.20

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim:

👎 Unfortunately, we did not find any positive expected value bets for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

Important information for your tip for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Cologne in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $88.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on TSG Hoffenheim in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-95.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Cologne scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, TSG Hoffenheim scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Playing as the home team, Cologne conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against TSG Hoffenheim.

🤖 Critical insight from ChatGPT on the prediction for Cologne vs TSG Hoffenheim:

Lets analyze the match between 1. FC Köln and TSG Hoffenheim that will take place at RheinEnergieStadion, home of Köln, with a capacity of about 50,000 fans, which could favor the home team due to crowd support.

📈 Positioning analysis: Although we dont have exact league data, we know both teams have shown mixed performance recently. Köln has a recent home record with 3 wins and 2 losses in the last 5 games, scoring and conceding an average of 1 goal per game. Hoffenheim has a more vulnerable defense away (average of 2 goals conceded) but has been offensively efficient (average of 1 goal scored). This suggests an open game where both teams can score.

Ball possession favors Hoffenheim slightly (50% vs. 45%), but Köln compensates with more shots on target per game (12 vs. 9), though they also concede more shots. The stats indicate a competitive match.

📰 Recent news: Köln has brought in young reinforcements like Jahmai Simpson-Pusey to improve their attack after recent difficulties, while some players are leaving or negotiating contracts. Hoffenheim has renewed key contracts like full-back Coufal and is betting on young defenders like Erlein; however, they are negotiating to lose vice-captain Prömel. These moves suggest tactical adjustments and squad stability focus.

Fair odds calculation:

• Based on median odds: – Köln win probability = 1/2.92 ≈ 0.3425 – Draw probability = 1/3.6 ≈ 0.2778 – Hoffenheim win probability = 1/2.2 ≈ 0.4545
• Sum = 1.0748
• Normalized: – Köln win: ~31.9% – Draw: ~25.9% – Hoffenheim win: ~42.3%

Given the balanced stats but slight offensive advantage for the visitors and the strength of RheinEnergieStadion for Köln, my adjusted estimate would be approximately: Köln win: ~33%, Draw: ~27%, Hoffenheim win: ~40%.

Odds analysis considering context:

• Köln tends to have fair odds around @3 due to recent defensive/offensive balance;
• Draw is less likely given few recent draws;
• Hoffenheim has a higher chance due to offensive consistency even away;

Expected value (EV) calculation using final odds:

• Köln EV = ((3.10 /3) -1)*100 = +3%
• Draw EV = ((3.8 /4)-1)*100= -5%
• Hoffenheim EV = ((2.15 /2.5)-1)*100= -14%

(Important note): The above values are approximate based on contextualized statistical analysis and actual final odds.

Comparison with Bets Kenya model:

• Our analysis suggests a slight positive value for the home team win (~+3%), while our model indicates a negative value (-6%) for this bet;
• Betting on the visitor doesnt seem to have value according to our analysis or the model (+/-);
• Our assessment considers qualitative factors like strong local support at RheinEnergieStadion and recent reinforcements in Colognes attack that could make a difference in a balanced game;

Conclusion 🎯:
I see potential value in betting on Colognes victory (@~3), because despite numbers showing a slight favoritism to the visitor due to offensive consistency away, playing in their fortress could be decisive.
A draw doesnt seem attractive given recent low historical chances.
Therefore, my suggestion is to bet on Colognes win, seeking this small positive edge! 🍀⚽️

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2026. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim for the Germany Bundesliga I – 21 of February

Latest news about Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

1. FC Köln: The transfer window for 1. FC Köln has already seen the arrival of young English player Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, loaned from Celtic until the end of the season, with the forward viewing the transfer as a fresh start. Bosnian forward Imad Rondic, who had a disappointing stint and was loaned to Polish team Raków Częstochowa, is seeking a permanent move, attracting interest from both German fourth division team Preußen Münster and English League One club Huddersfield Town. Meanwhile, defender Eric Martels contract expires in summer, and the club has opened negotiations for renewal. The chapter of defender Chilohem Onuoha with the club has been officially closed, and Fortuna Köln secured the signing of young defender Neo Telle after his loan at Effzehs Regionalliga team. On the field, the main team suffered a 3-1 home defeat to VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, with Kölns goal scored by Ache. The womens team secured a crucial 1-0 victory against SC Freiburg thanks to a late penalty converted by Martyna Wiankowska, while the reserve team, 1. FC Köln II, drew 1-1 with Sportfreunde Lotte in Regionalliga West.

TSG Hoffenheim: TSG Hoffenheim secured the extension of the contract of experienced right-back Vladimir Coufal, confirming the agreement until February 16, 2026. The club also renewed the contract of young defender Luca Erlein, born in 2005, early until February 11, 2026, following his performances in the DFB-Pokal and Europa League. Additionally, the clubs vice-captain, Grischa Prömel, whose contract expires in summer, is being courted by VfB Stuttgart, with negotiations ongoing for a possible free transfer.

Table analysis for the match between Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

Cologne: Cologne is in 12th place with 23 points, far from both the relegation zone (16th place with 19 points) and the fight for European competition spots, which starts at 6th place with 39 points. Considering the large points gap to the top and a comfortable margin from danger, this match is not decisive for Cologne at this stage of the season. The focus can be on securing a better position, but without much weight on qualification or relegation.

TSG Hoffenheim: Hoffenheim is in 3rd place with 45 points, within the direct Champions League qualification zone, but only 6 points behind the second-place Borussia Dortmund, showing there is still a fight to improve position or stay firmly in the top tier. This match is important for Hoffenheim because it can directly influence their standing in a tight race for the top of the table and securing a spot in a prestigious international tournament.

Summary: The game is more important for TSG Hoffenheim, which aims to establish its position among the leaders and secure a Champions League spot. For Cologne, the match has less impact on the season, as the team is in a comfortable mid-table zone, without imminent threats of relegation or real chances to compete for European spots.

How the handicap and odds moved for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

It is always useful to analyse how the odds and the handicap behaved over time. This helps us understand where the betting market is heading and what punters expect for the match between Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim.

Below you will see a summary that compares the opening odds with the current odds in the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Cologne and TSG Hoffenheim.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1483644 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is it a good idea to bet on Cologne?

🔵 Cologne: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 31.71% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.96. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 320 times – having a profit of $627.20;
• And would have lost other 680 times – with a loss of -$680.00 because of them.

It is a low stake bet, since after all you would have an final expected profit of just 💰$52.80. Which is not even that worthy considering the risk!

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 21.63% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.60. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $572.00;
• And would lose other 780 times – having a loss of -$780.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$208.00.

Is it worth betting on TSG Hoffenheim?

🔴 TSG Hoffenheim: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 46.66% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 2.20. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 470 times – profiting $564.00;
• And would lose other 530 times – having a loss of -$530.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$34.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: 0.0 Cologne
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 0.0 Cologne and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.25 Cologne.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.25 Cologne.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 3.00 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Cologne x TSG Hoffenheim