Nottm Forest x Liverpool Betting tips for February 22 in England Premier League
| 📅 22/2/2026 14:00 |
 Nottm Forest3.95 |
X 3.80 |
Liverpool  1.81 |
Our algorithm has selected this tip for Nottm Forest x Liverpool:
👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Nottm Forest x Liverpool
Some important points for the tip for Nottm Forest x Liverpool:
👉 If you had bet $100 on Nottm Forest in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-338.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Liverpool in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-130.0.
👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Liverpool scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Nottm Forest x Liverpool, with Nottm Forest as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
🤖 What’s ChatGPT’s opinion on our prediction for Nottm Forest vs Liverpool?
Lets analyze the match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool at City Ground, Forests traditional stadium, which will surely create an intense atmosphere for the game. ⚽
📈 Liverpool arrives as a clear favorite, with an average of around 2 away goals per game and a higher ball possession (55%), plus more accurate shots (2 vs 5 for Forest). Nottingham Forest has shown some instability, but with the arrival of coach Vitor Pereira, there has been a significant improvement in the team, including a convincing victory in the Europa League recently. This could give an extra boost to face Liverpool at home.
The median odds indicate: Forest win at 3.92, draw at 3.8, and Liverpool win at 1.81; normalizing the implied probabilities gives approximately: 25% for Forest victory, 26% for draw, and 49% for Liverpool victory. Considering recent statistics — especially the visiting teams offensive power — my fair estimate would be close to these figures.
However, when calculating fair odds considering technical data and recent news (such as the positive impact of the coaching change at Nottingham), I see greater value in betting on a draw or even a possible surprise if the home team takes advantage of its recent form.
Analyzing the expected values of the final odds versus my calculated fair odds: only the bet on Liverpools victory has a slightly positive expected value (~1%), while the other options have significant negative EV.
Therefore, I agree with the Bets Kenya model that suggests betting on the away team as the safest option here — despite the good news about Nottingham Forest that might balance this contest a bit more within their domain.
My recommendation: bet on Liverpools victory for statistical safety and the solid form presented by the team under Arne Slot; but stay alert for surprises given the recent changes at Nottingham Forest!
📰 Important news influenced this analysis: Vitor Pereira recently took over Nottingham Forest, bringing confidence after an important victory in the Europa League; Liverpool, on the other hand, is riding high with convincing wins including the FA Cup and aims to maintain a strong rhythm for the Champions League.
Do you want other suggestions of bookmakers to bet on Nottm Forest x Liverpool?
If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2026. You just have to click, deposit and bet:
Analysis from Nottm Forest x Liverpool for the England Premier League – 22 of February
🏟️ Nottm Forest X Liverpool – England Premier League
📅 22 of February, 2026 – 14:00
🔵 Nottm Forest – Winning probability: 22.43% | Fair line: 4.46
⚪ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 22.87% | Fair line: 4.37
🔴 Liverpool – Winning probability: 54.70% | Fair line: 1.83
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Nottm Forest
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.75 corner kicks
The latest news about Nottm Forest x Liverpool
Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest appointed former Wolves and Olympiakos coach Vitor Pereira as their new head coach, signing an 18-month contract after dismissing Sean Dyche in mid-February 2026; Pereira immediately stabilized the club with a 3-0 victory in the first leg of the Europa League knockout round against Fenerbahçe, where defender Murillo scored a long-range goal, Morgan Gibbs-White netted the second, and Igor Jesus completed the rout. He emphasized that his pre-existing relationship with owner Evangelos Marinakis gives him the confidence needed to lead Forest out of the relegation zone as the team faces crucial Premier League matches against Liverpool, Brighton, and Manchester City.
Liverpool: Liverpool secured a convincing 3-0 win over Brighton in the fourth round of the FA Cup on February 14, 2026, with goals from Curtis Jones, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Mohamed Salah, and coach Arne Slot praised the performance as proof that the team “is as good as last season” while already thinking about the fifth-round draw; the club also faces a crucial Champions League clash against Qarabag, where victory is necessary to secure a top-four spot and avoid the playoff route.
Table analysis for the game between Nottm Forest and Liverpool
Nottm Forest: Nottm Forest is in 17th place with 27 points, just above the relegation zone, which is in 18th place with 24 points for West Ham. The gap is small, making this match very important for Forest, which needs to earn points to move further away from the drop zone and secure Premier League survival. Every point is crucial in this final stretch to avoid relegation.
Liverpool: Liverpool is in 6th position with 42 points, outside the Champions League qualification zone, which goes up to 4th place (Manchester United, with 45 points). Although in a relatively comfortable position and away from relegation danger, Liverpool still seeks to improve its standing to guarantee a direct spot in major European competitions. Therefore, this match is also important to try to reach at least the top 4.
Summary: This game is important for both teams: crucial for Nottm Forest in the fight against relegation and relevant for Liverpool in the quest for a spot in European competitions. A match with high motivation from both sides! ⚽🔥
Analysis of odds and handicap movement for Nottm Forest x Liverpool
Before confirming your prediction, it is worth taking a look at how the odds have moved since the market opened. When the market adjusts the price (even slightly) it is usually because money flowed in, new information emerged or the bookmakers recalibrated their risk.
Below you will find a summary comparing opening odds with current odds in the main markets for Nottm Forest x Liverpool (1X2, handicap and goals).
📊 With a variation of 0.00%, the odds for Nottm Forest are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @4.0 for Nottm Forest and now the odds are @4.0.
📊 The odds for Draw had a slight Raised of 8.11%: the market opened with odds of @3.7 for Draw and now the odds are @4.0.
📊 With a variation of 0.00%, the odds for Liverpool are virtually stable in relation to its opening: the market opened with odds of @1.8 for Liverpool and now the odds are @1.8.
📊 The market increased away team´s favoritism: the handicap that opened at 0.5 is now at 0.75 for Liverpool.
📊 The Goal Market remains stable: the current handicap of 2.75 goals is exactly the same from its opening.
Tips for the Match Odds market for Nottm Forest x Liverpool
A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Nottm Forest and Liverpool.
And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1484106 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:
Is it a good idea to bet on Nottm Forest?
🔵 Nottm Forest: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.43% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.95. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:
- Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $649.00;
- And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.
That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$131.00.
Is betting on draw worth it?
⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 22.87% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would hit 230 times – profiting $644.00;
- And would have lost other 770 times – with a loss of -$770.00 because of them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$126.00.
Should you bet on Liverpool?
🔴 Liverpool: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 54.7%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.81. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:
- Would have hit 550 times – having a profit of $445.50;
- And would lose other 450 times – losing -$450.00 with them.
Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$4.50.
Handicaps analysis for the match Nottm Forest x Liverpool
Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..
Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:
⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.5 Nottm Forest
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals
Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Nottm Forest x Liverpool
⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.5 Nottm Forest and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.75 Nottm Forest.
We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: +0.75 Nottm Forest.
Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Nottm Forest x Liverpool
⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.
Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.
FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Nottm Forest x Liverpool
Which team is the favourite in Nottm Forest x Liverpool?
Based on our calculations, the team most likely to win is Liverpool, with an estimated chance of 54.70%. Remember: surprises happen in football!
Who will win: Nottm Forest x Liverpool?
It is important to remember that sports betting offers no guarantees. However, our analysis indicates that Liverpool is more likely to win, with an estimated probability of 54.70%. Betting involves risk—bet responsibly!
What are the chances of Nottm Forest beating Liverpool today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Nottm Forest would take victory in roughly 22 of them versus Liverpool.
What are the chances of Liverpool beating Nottm Forest today?
From our analysis, in 100 encounters we forecast that Liverpool would take victory in roughly 55 of them against Nottm Forest.
Which team should I bet on: Nottm Forest or Liverpool?
We did not identify an obvious positive EV bet for this game. Stay disciplined with bankroll management and avoid risking more than 2% of your funds!
How much is Nottm Forest paying today? See what you can win by betting on Nottm Forest x Liverpool:
The odds for Nottm Forest to beat Liverpool today are around 3.95. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh3950.00 if Nottm Forest wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
How much is Liverpool paying today? See what you can win by betting on Nottm Forest x Liverpool:
The odds for Liverpool to beat Nottm Forest today are around 1.81. That means a bet of KSh1000 could return KSh1810.00 if Liverpool wins. Remember betting involves risk and returns are not guaranteed. Bet responsibly!
