Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton Betting tips for February 22 in England Premier League

Our betting tip for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton, Sunday, 22/2/2026

📅 22/2/2026 14:00

Crystal Palace 1.65

X 3.90

Wolverhampton 5.05

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton

The main points for the tip for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Crystal Palace in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Wolverhampton in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-356.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Wolverhampton, Crystal Palace scored at least 2 goal(s).
👉 In the last 5 Wolverhampton matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 4 head-to-head matches between Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton, with Crystal Palace as the home team, they finished over 2.5 goals.
👉 Playing as the home team, Crystal Palace conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 4 head-to-head against Wolverhampton.
👉 Crystal Palace has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Wolverhampton.

🤖 What does ChatGPT have to say about our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Wolverhampton?

📊 The match between Crystal Palace and Wolverhampton is expected to be balanced, but with a slight advantage for Crystal Palace playing at their home stadium Selhurst Park, which is their traditional home. Palace has shown recent defensive difficulties, conceding an average of 2 goals per game at home in recent matches, while scoring only 1 goal per game. Wolverhampton has a slightly more solid defense away from home, conceding about 1 goal per game and also scoring an average of 1 goal.

📈 In the league table, both teams are pressured to seek points: Crystal Palace comes from a poor streak with few wins and faces criticism of coach Oliver Glasner due to defensive errors and below-expected results. Wolverhampton managed an important draw against leader Arsenal recently, showing resilience even being at the bottom of the table. This indicates that the visitors are motivated to surprise.

📰 The news reinforces this analysis: Crystal Palace is under pressure after drawing away in the Conference League and suffering unexpected eliminations in national cups; additionally, captain Marc Guehi has left and transfer rumors may affect team stability. On the other hand, Wolverhampton showed mental strength by avoiding defeat against a strong opponent even when behind on the score.

Considering the median odds (Home: 1.65 | Draw: 3.9 | Away: 5) adjusted by betting margins, we have approximate fair probabilities of about 56% for Palace to win, 23% for a draw, and 21% for Wolves to win. My calculation suggests fair odds for a home win around @1.78 due to the pressure for a positive result combined with the home advantage; fair odds @4 for a draw; and fair odds @5 or more for an away win given Wolves recent historical difficulty away.

Analyzing the expected value (EV) of the final odds offered (Home @1.615 / Draw @4.1 / Away @5.25), I see that betting on a draw might bring some discreet positive value (~+6%), as bookmakers underestimate this possibility given the recent instability of both teams — especially considering Wolves frequent recent draws away (3 draws in the last five games). Betting on the home or away win does not present an interesting expected value given the adjusted probabilities.

My suggestion: bet on draw, as it offers greater security against current tactical uncertainties of both teams and provides a good return relative to the risk ⚽🤝

Suggested bet by the Bets Kenya model: The model indicated clear favoritism for the home team to win without a positive expected value in the suggested bets — I disagree with this view because it seems to underestimate Wolves recent resilient capacity demonstrated against strong opponents like Arsenal.
I would bet on a draw with an estimated EV above +5%, while they do not recommend a clear bet here.

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Analysis from Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton for the England Premier League – 22 of February

Latest news on the match between Crystal Palace and Wolverhampton

Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace drew 1-1 away against Zrinjski Mostar in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League qualifiers on February 19, 2026, with Ismaila Sarr opening the scoring before Karlo Abramović equalized ten minutes into the second half. Coach Oliver Glasner was criticized for defensive lapses as he prepares for the next Premier League match against Wolverhampton Wanderers. The clubs cup campaigns also faced setbacks, being eliminated from the FA Cup by non-league Macclesfield Town in the third round after a rotated squad suffered an embarrassing defeat.

Wolverhampton Wanderers: Wolverhampton Wanderers drew 2-2 with league leaders Arsenal at Molineux on February 18, 2026, with Hugo Bueno scoring at 61 minutes and 18-year-old debutant Tom Edozie saving a draw in stoppage time at 94 minutes. Arsenals goals were from Bukayo Saka (5’) and defender Piero Hincapié (56’). The hosts made four changes from their previous victory over Grimsby, calling up goalkeeper José Sa and midfielder Hugo Bueno, and adding Andre Gomes and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde to the squad. The result marked the first time a team at the bottom of the table avoided defeat against the league leader after trailing by two goals, ending Wolves 31-match home losing streak when behind by two.

Table analysis for the match between Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton

Crystal Palace: Crystal Palace is in 13th place with 32 points. They are far from European competition spots but not too close to the relegation zone, occupying an intermediate position in the table. As the season is advanced, this game is quite important for Palace to secure their safe stay in the Premier League and try to distance themselves further from the danger zone. A victory could provide an important breather for the team to stay steady in their campaign, avoiding surprises in the final rounds.

Wolverhampton: Wolverhampton is in 20th and last position with only 10 points, already at imminent risk of relegation. Given their poor performance so far, this game is crucial for Wolverhampton, which desperately needs to earn points to try to escape the drop. Every match is a final for them at this moment, making this game extremely important to maintain some mathematical chance of staying in the top division of English football.

Summary: The game is important for both teams, but for different reasons: Crystal Palace wants to secure their safety in the middle of the table, while Wolverhampton fights to avoid relegation. Therefore, it will be a decisive confrontation especially for the visitors, who face a critical situation.

Odds and handicap movements for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton

One step many punters overlook is analysing the movement of odds and the handicap over time. Doing this gives a clearer idea of market expectations for the match between Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton.

Check the summary below that compares opening odds with current odds across the main markets: 1X2, handicap and goals.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1484106 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Is betting on Crystal Palace worth it?

🔵 Crystal Palace: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 55.81% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.65. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 560 times – this would give you a profit of $364.00
• And would lose other 440 times – losing -$440.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$76.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 25.8% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.90. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 260 times – this would give you a profit of $754.00
• And would lose other 740 times – having a loss of -$740.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$14.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Should you bet on Wolverhampton?

🔴 Wolverhampton: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.4% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 5.05. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 180 times – profiting $729.00;
• And would have lost other 820 times – with a loss of -$820.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$91.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.25 Crystal Palace
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.25 Crystal Palace and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Crystal Palace.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.75 Wolverhampton.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

FAQs: Common questions about the tip for Crystal Palace x Wolverhampton