Atlas x Toluca Betting tips for April 13 in Mexico Liga MX

Our betting tip for Atlas x Toluca, Sunday, 13/4/2025

📅 13/4/2025 01:05

Atlas 3.80

X 3.68

Toluca 1.83

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Atlas x Toluca:

🔮 Toluca wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Toluca, you can win up to $915.00!

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Or access: https://www.bet365.com 

The main points for the tip for Atlas x Toluca: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Atlas in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-115.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Toluca in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-153.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Atlas scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Atlas x Toluca, with Atlas as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 Toluca matches as the away team, it finished over 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Atlas conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Atlas has not lost any of the last 3 head-to-head matches against Toluca playing at home.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Atlas x Toluca?

If you already have an account on Bet365 or want other options of bookmakers, do not worry! This list below was carefully created taking you into consideration. These are the best betting sites analysed by us in 2025. You just have to click, deposit and bet:

Analysis from Atlas x Toluca for the Mexico Liga MX – 13 of April

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Atlas x Toluca right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1302086 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Atlas x Toluca

Is it worth betting on Atlas?

🔵 Atlas: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 22.8%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 230 times – profiting $644.00;
• And would lose other 770 times – losing -$770.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$126.00.

Should you bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 18.94% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.68. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 190 times – profiting $509.20;
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$300.80.

Is it worth betting on Toluca?

🔴 Toluca: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 58.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.83. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 580 times – this would give you a profit of $481.40
• And would lose other 420 times – having a loss of -$420.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$61.40.

Handicaps analysis for the match Atlas x Toluca

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +0.75 Atlas
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Atlas x Toluca

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +0.75 Atlas, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Atlas.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Toluca.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Atlas x Toluca

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.75 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.75 goals.