Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino Betting tips for December 5 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino, Thursday, 5/12/2024

📅 5/12/2024 23:00

Athletico Paranaense 2.01

X 3.41

Bragantino 3.60

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino

Some important points for the tip for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Athletico Paranaense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $75.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Bragantino in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Athletico Paranaense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Bragantino, Athletico Paranaense scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 3 Athletico Paranaense matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 Athletico Paranaense has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Bragantino playing at home.

Looking for another bookie to bet on Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2024. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino for the Brazil Serie A – 5 of December

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1232622 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino

Is it worth betting on Athletico Paranaense?

🔵 Athletico Paranaense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 43.84% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.01. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 440 times – profiting $444.40;
• And would lose other 560 times – having a loss of -$560.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$115.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 28.48% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.41. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $674.80;
• And would lose other 720 times – having a loss of -$720.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$45.20.

Is it worth betting on Bragantino?

🔴 Bragantino: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 27.68% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.60. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 280 times – profiting $728.00;
• And would have lost other 720 times – with a loss of -$720.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$8.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Athletico Paranaense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Athletico Paranaense, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.5 Athletico Paranaense.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Athletico Paranaense x Bragantino

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: – 2.50 goals.