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Home ยป Predictions ยป Brazil Serie A ยป Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama Betting tips for November 25 in Brazil Serie A
Saturday, 25 November 2023, 00h00 Brazil Serie A
Athletico Paranaense Athletico Paranaense
PREDICTION Athletico Paranaense wins Probability 14% 1 X 2
Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama
ODD: @1.84 Don't miss this prediction! BET NOW Don't miss this prediction!

Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama Betting tips for November 25 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama, Saturday, 25/11/2023
๐Ÿ“… 25/11/2023
22:30
Athletico Paranaense Athletico Paranaense
1.84
X
3.42
Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama
4.26

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama:

๐Ÿ”ฎ Athletico Paranaense wins the match
๐Ÿ’ฐ When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Athletico Paranaense, you can win up to $920.00!

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The main points for the tip for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama:

๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Athletico Paranaense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-185.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Vasco da Gama in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-200.0.
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the home team, Athletico Paranaense scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 matches as the away team, Vasco da Gama scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the home team against Vasco da Gama, Athletico Paranaense scored at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the home team, Athletico Paranaense conceded at least 1 goal(s).
๐Ÿ‘‰ In the last 3 road matches, Vasco da Gama has not lost any of them.
๐Ÿ‘‰ Athletico Paranaense has won all the last 5 matches playing at home against Vasco da Gama.

๐Ÿ“Š You can also check out the full analysis on Betfellows: Prognostic for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Summary

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2023. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama for the Brazil Serie A – 25 of November

๐ŸŸ๏ธ Athletico Paranaense X Vasco da Gama – Brazil Serie A
๐Ÿ“… 25 of November, 2023 – 22:30
๐Ÿ”ต Athletico Paranaense – Winning probability: 63.34% | Fair line: 1.58
โšช Tied game – Probability of tied match: 22.17% | Fair line: 4.51
๐Ÿ”ด Vasco da Gama – Winning probability: 14.49% | Fair line: 6.9
โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Athletico Paranaense
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals
โ›ณ Expected corner kicks: 9.50 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1024927 matches from Betfellows database, our collaborative prediction platform, seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama

Is it a good idea to bet on Athletico Paranaense?

๐Ÿ”ต Athletico Paranaense: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 63.34%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.84. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 630 times – profiting $529.20;
  • And would lose other 370 times – having a loss of -$370.00 with them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of ๐Ÿ’ฐ$159.20.

Is it worth betting on draw?

โšช draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.17% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.42. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $532.40;
  • And would lose other 780 times – losing -$780.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$247.60.

Is it a good idea to bet on Vasco da Gama?

๐Ÿ”ด Vasco da Gama: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 14.49%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.26. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 140 times – profiting $456.40;
  • And would lose other 860 times – having a loss of -$860.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of ๐Ÿ’ฐ-$403.60.

Place your Bet with Bet365 Bonus

Handicaps analysis for the match Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama

Maybe you prefer another approach: betting on Asian handicaps. We thought about it and our model also seeks to find the main handicaps of the most important markets. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

โš– Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Athletico Paranaense
โšฝ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama

โš– Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Athletico Paranaense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Athletico Paranaense.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Athletico Paranaense x Vasco da Gama

โšฝ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals. As the handicap available on the market is the same as that indicated by our robot, we will do nothing since there is not value bets on the Goals Handicap market.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves