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Home Β» Predictions Β» Brazil Serie A Β» Bragantino x Palmeiras Betting tips for October 5 in Brazil Serie A
Saturday, 05 October 2024, 16h30 Brazil Serie A
Bragantino Bragantino
PREDICTION No tip
Palmeiras Palmeiras
Don't miss this prediction!

Bragantino x Palmeiras Betting tips for October 5 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Bragantino x Palmeiras, Saturday, 5/10/2024
πŸ“… 5/10/2024
16:30
Bragantino Bragantino
3.46
X
3.45
Palmeiras Palmeiras
2.04

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Bragantino x Palmeiras:

πŸ‘Ž Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Bragantino x Palmeiras

Some important points for the tip for Bragantino x Palmeiras:

πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Bragantino in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-265.0.
πŸ‘‰ If you had bet $100 on Palmeiras in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-95.0.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 matches as the home team, Bragantino scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 5 matches as the away team, Palmeiras scored at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ In the last 6 Bragantino matches as the home team, it finished over 2.5 goals.
πŸ‘‰ In the last 7 matches as the home team, Bragantino conceded at least 1 goal(s).
πŸ‘‰ Playing as the home team, Bragantino conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 5 head-to-head against Palmeiras.

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Summary

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Analysis from Bragantino x Palmeiras for the Brazil Serie A – 5 of October

🏟️ Bragantino X Palmeiras – Brazil Serie A
πŸ“… 5 of October, 2024 – 16:30
πŸ”΅ Bragantino – Winning probability: 19.85% | Fair line: 5.04
βšͺ Tied game – Probability of tied match: 22.07% | Fair line: 4.53
πŸ”΄ Palmeiras – Winning probability: 58.07% | Fair line: 1.72
βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: +0.25 Bragantino
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals
β›³ Expected corner kicks: 10.00 corner kicks

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Bragantino x Palmeiras right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

To achieve that, the algorithm analyses more than 1194677 matches from our database seeking for patterns to get to the winning probabilities for the home team, a tie or a victory for the away team. That was the conclusion from our artificial intelligence:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Bragantino x Palmeiras

Is it a good idea to bet on Bragantino?

πŸ”΅ Bragantino: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 19.85% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.46. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 200 times – profiting $492.00;
  • And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of πŸ’°-$308.00.

Should you bet on draw?

βšͺ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 22.07% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.45. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 220 times – having a profit of $539.00;
  • And would have lost other 780 times – with a loss of -$780.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of πŸ’°-$241.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Palmeiras?

πŸ”΄ Palmeiras: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 58.07%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.04. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 580 times – profiting $603.20;
  • And would lose other 420 times – losing -$420.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just πŸ’°$183.20 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Bragantino x Palmeiras

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: +0.25 Bragantino
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1Γ—2 market for Bragantino x Palmeiras

βš– Handicap 1Γ—2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is +0.25 Bragantino and the available handicap to bet at the moment is +0.5 Bragantino.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1Γ—2 is on: +0.5 Bragantino.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Bragantino x Palmeiras

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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