Cruzeiro x Gremio Betting tips for November 28 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Cruzeiro x Gremio, Thursday, 28/11/2024

📅 28/11/2024 00:00

Cruzeiro 2.11

X 3.27

Gremio 3.50

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Cruzeiro x Gremio:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Cruzeiro x Gremio

Important information for your tip for Cruzeiro x Gremio: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Cruzeiro in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-338.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Gremio in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500. 👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Cruzeiro x Gremio, with Cruzeiro as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 8 matches as the home team, Cruzeiro conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Gremio conceded at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Cruzeiro x Gremio for the Brazil Serie A – 28 of November

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Cruzeiro x Gremio right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1228982 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Cruzeiro x Gremio

Is betting on Cruzeiro worth it?

🔵 Cruzeiro: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 50.49%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 2.11. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 500 times – profiting $555.00;
• And would have lost other 500 times – with a loss of -$500.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$55.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.25% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.27. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $681.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – having a loss of -$700.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$19.00, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Is betting on Gremio worth it?

🔴 Gremio: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.27% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.50. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 190 times – this would give you a profit of $475.00
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$335.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Cruzeiro x Gremio

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Cruzeiro
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Cruzeiro x Gremio

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Cruzeiro and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.25 Cruzeiro.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is -0.25, this means that the best bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.25 Cruzeiro.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Cruzeiro x Gremio

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.