Flamengo x Fluminense Betting tips for October 17 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Flamengo x Fluminense, Thursday, 17/10/2024

📅 17/10/2024 23:00

Flamengo 1.84

X 3.44

Fluminense 4.27

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Flamengo x Fluminense:

👎 Unfortunately, we do not have any positive expected value tips for Flamengo x Fluminense

The main points for the tip for Flamengo x Fluminense: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Flamengo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $41.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Fluminense in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-25.0. 👉 In the last 5 Flamengo matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Flamengo x Fluminense, with Flamengo as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the away team, Fluminense conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Flamengo has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Fluminense playing at home. 👉 It is not a good time for Fluminense as away team: it comes from 3 losses in a row in its last away matches.

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Analysis from Flamengo x Fluminense for the Brazil Serie A – 17 of October

When the best bet on Flamengo x Fluminense is analysed, notice that our AI model is not interested in getting the right result, but instead in looking for situations where the bookies offer us a positive expected value.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1202780 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the Match Odds market for Flamengo x Fluminense

Should you bet on Flamengo?

🔵 Flamengo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 50.24%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.84. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 500 times – this would give you a profit of $420.00
• And would lose other 500 times – losing -$500.00 with them.

Even if it is a positive expected value bet, the expected profit is just 💰$80.00 which is not worth the risk in our opinion.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 29.83% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.44. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – profiting $732.00;
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$32.00.

Is it worth betting on Fluminense?

🔴 Fluminense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 19.93% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 4.27. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 200 times – having a profit of $654.00;
• And would lose other 800 times – losing -$800.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$146.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Flamengo x Fluminense

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

These are the handicaps that our algorithm analysed for you:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Flamengo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.25 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Flamengo x Fluminense

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Flamengo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.5 Flamengo.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Flamengo x Fluminense

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.25 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.