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Home » Predictions » Brazil Serie A » Fluminense x Sao Paulo Betting tips for September 1 in Brazil Serie A
Sunday, 01 September 2024, 18h30 Brazil Serie A
Fluminense Fluminense
PREDICTION Fluminense wins Probability 42% 1 X 2
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
ODD: @2.39 Don't miss this prediction!

Fluminense x Sao Paulo Betting tips for September 1 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Fluminense x Sao Paulo, Sunday, 1/9/2024
📅 1/9/2024
18:30
Fluminense Fluminense
2.39
X
3.10
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
3.03

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Fluminense x Sao Paulo:

🔮 Fluminense wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Fluminense, you can win up to $1195.00!

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The main points for the tip for Fluminense x Sao Paulo:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Fluminense in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $255.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Sao Paulo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-500.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Sao Paulo, Fluminense scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 Fluminense has won all the last 3 matches playing at home against Sao Paulo.

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Summary

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Analysis from Fluminense x Sao Paulo for the Brazil Serie A – 1 of September

🏟️ Fluminense X Sao Paulo – Brazil Serie A
📅 1 of September, 2024 – 18:30
🔵 Fluminense – Winning probability: 42.35% | Fair line: 2.36
Tied game – Probability of tied match: 33.15% | Fair line: 3.02
🔴 Sao Paulo – Winning probability: 24.50% | Fair line: 4.08
⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Fluminense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals
⛳ Expected corner kicks: 9.00 corner kicks

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Fluminense and Sao Paulo.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1171696 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Fluminense x Sao Paulo

Is it worth betting on Fluminense?

🔵 Fluminense: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 42.35% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 2.39. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

  • Would hit 420 times – this would give you a profit of $583.80
  • And would have lost other 580 times – with a loss of -$580.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$3.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 33.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.10. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would hit 330 times – this would give you a profit of $693.00
  • And would lose other 670 times – losing -$670.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$23.00.

Is it a good idea to bet on Sao Paulo?

🔴 Sao Paulo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 24.5%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.03. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

  • Would have hit 250 times – having a profit of $507.50;
  • And would have lost other 750 times – with a loss of -$750.00 because of them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$242.50.

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Handicaps analysis for the match Fluminense x Sao Paulo

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Fluminense
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Fluminense x Sao Paulo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.5 Fluminense and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 0.0 Fluminense.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is -0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 0.0 Fluminense.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Fluminense x Sao Paulo

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.50 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.00 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.00 goals.

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Written by

Autor
Humberto Alves

Hi there! You can call me Beto! I'm 32 years old, graduated in Business Management and now I'm doing my second degree in Statistics and Data Science, which is really helpful to bring the Machine Learning models applied in sports betting that you see here. Even though I'm in this betting world since 2010, there's still a lot to be learned.

> Check other content created by Humberto Alves
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