Mirassol x Flamengo Betting tips for December 6 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Mirassol x Flamengo, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 21:30

Mirassol 1.50

X 3.90

Flamengo 6.50

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Mirassol x Flamengo:

🔮 Mirassol wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Mirassol, you can win up to $750.00!

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Important information for your tip for Mirassol x Flamengo:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Mirassol in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $465.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Flamengo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-126.0.
👉 In the last 5 matches as the away team, Flamengo scored at least 1 goal(s).

🤖 ChatGPT’s take on our prediction for Mirassol vs Flamengo:

Lets talk about the match between Mirassol and Flamengo at the Municipal Stadium José Maria de Campos Maia, known as “Maião,” in Mirassol. The stadium is home to Mirassol, which is experiencing a historic phase with 18 undefeated home games and direct qualification for the 2026 Libertadores. Flamengo arrives motivated by their fourth Libertadores title and Brasileirão championship, but faces fatigue from the trip to Qatar for the Intercontinental Cup.

📈 In the standings, Mirassol is in fourth place with 61 points, aiming to maintain their direct Libertadores spot. Flamengo is the outright leader and has already secured the Brazilian title. This gives the home team extra motivation to secure the three points against an opponent that might be more focused on international commitments.

📰 News reports show a very organized Mirassol tactically, relying on collective effort to neutralize Flamengos stars. On the other hand, Flamengo faces internal tensions over unbalanced salaries and possible physical fatigue due to the long trip to Qatar immediately after the match. Additionally, criticisms about limited offensive performance may reveal vulnerabilities exploitable by the home team.

𝕏 On X, posts highlight Mirassols collective strength against Flamengos individual resources; there are also rumors about contractual deadlocks at the Rio club and concerns about physical fatigue of the starting players due to imminent international logistics.

Analyzing the median odds (1.52 home win / 3.88 draw / 6.25 away win) adjusted by bookmaker margins, we get approximate fair probabilities: around 58% for Mirassol to win, about 23% for a draw, and roughly 19% for Flamengo to win. Considering recent statistics — such as a high average of goals scored by the home team (2 goals per game) against a solid defensive average — along with news indicating higher motivation at home versus possible visitor fatigue — my estimate reinforces a slight advantage for the home team.

Final odds analysis (1.3 / 5.25 / 10) shows a positive expected value only for the bet on the home win according to our internal model (EV +8%), while draws or away wins have significant negative EV.

Final suggestion: I fully agree with the bet suggested by Apuestas Club: bet on Mirassol to win. The combination of solid recent statistics as the home team, high motivation due to league position, and possible physical/mental difficulties faced by Flamengo make this bet quite attractive with a positive expected value above 5%! ⚽🔥

Looking for more options of bookmakers for your bet on Mirassol x Flamengo?

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Analysis from Mirassol x Flamengo for the Brazil Serie A – 6 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Mirassol and Flamengo.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449456 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on the match between Mirassol and Flamengo

Mirassol: In 2025, Mirassol is experiencing its most historic season: after defeating Vasco 2-0 at São Januário, they secured direct qualification to the group stage of the 2026 Libertadores, finishing fourth in the Brasileirão with 61 points; the team maintains an undefeated home streak of 18 matches, tying a record from 22 years ago, and the next match against Flamengo was moved up to Saturday, December 6, at 6:30 PM, at Maião, after CBF confirmed the Brasileirão title for the opponent; coach Rafael Guanaes celebrated the achievement emotionally, while captain Lucas Ramon highlighted the campaigns importance, and the club has already secured the full purchase of 70% of the economic rights of defender Jemmes, preparing for CONMEBOLs continental debut.

Flamengo: Flamengo is living one of the most glorious moments in its history: under Filipe Luíss leadership, the team won its fourth Libertadores title by defeating Palmeiras in Lima, and secured the 2025 Brasileirão title with a 1-0 victory over Ceará at Maracanã, achieving a historic feat by holding titles in the Libertadores, Brasileirão, Supercopa do Brasil, Campeonato Carioca, and Copa do Brasil (won in 2024) simultaneously; celebrations included a major event in Rios south zone with players like Juninho, Samuel Lino, and Jorginho, while the management is already preparing for the trip to Qatar for the Intercontinental Cup, where Flamengo will debut against Cruz Azul from Mexico, with a possible semifinal against Pyramids from Egypt and a final against PSG from Europe; meanwhile, the club keeps Vitão on the market radar, faces defensive position battles for 2026, and is dealing with a legal case involving Bruno Henrique, who was cited as a defendant for fraud.

What are people gossiping about on Twitter/X for the clash between Mirassol and Flamengo?

⚽ Respectable progress of Mirassol: Mirassol has been highlighted for its strong investment in infrastructure and the winning mentality of coach Guanaes, who exceeded expectations for a team recently promoted to Série A. This consistent project indicates a well-organized and competitive team, with an above-average collective for their size, capable of creating chances and challenging more traditional opponents. This could impact Mirassols solidity and resilience during the match.

🧠 Collective strength versus individual resource: Comments suggest that Mirassol, despite having a technically inferior squad and limited payroll, stands out for the quality of the team – more collective than individual. This implies that tactics and team organization will be crucial to attempt to nullify Flamengo’s stars, possibly resulting in a match with intense marking and quick transitions for Mirassol.

🚨 Lack of offensive standout at Flamengo: A critical post mentions a Flamengo player who was out for half the season and had low offensive performance (11 goals scored). Although the criticism doesnt cite specific names, its important to remember that limitations in the performance of a key player or absences could reduce Flamengos firepower, affecting the visiting teams ability to impose consistent offensive play against Mirassol.

🔥 Flamengo faces internal pressure and salary imbalance: News of the deadlock in renewing coach Filipe Luís’s contract, who earns a much lower salary than club stars, reveals possible internal tensions at Flamengo. This scenario could interfere with the locker room atmosphere, technical decisions, and team motivation, especially in an away game against a motivated rival like Mirassol.

✈️ Travel and fatigue for Flamengo: Flamengo will undertake a long and complex journey to Qatar immediately after the match, including an 18-hour flight with a refueling stop. Despite the comfort of the aircraft, the physical and psychological fatigue from the upcoming travel could affect the team’s focus and preparation for the match against Mirassol, especially if there’s rotation or effort management of starters.

👀 Lineups and expectations: The lineup disclosure of Flamengo with “Michael and 10 more” suggests the starting team will bear the offensive responsibility, with Michael being the highlight of the moment. This puts a strong focus on this player and the game centered on his feet, which can be exploited defensively by Mirassol, betting on team organization.

📺 Media and fan attention: Information on where to watch, huge social media attention, and supporter flows indicate the game has high visibility, which could increase pressure especially on Flamengo, the favorite historically, but facing an ascending and motivated opponent with low investment and a lot of work at the youth level.

The entire picture shows Mirassol trying to confirm its recent reputation as a solid and highly collective team, with little individual technique but strong tactical organization, facing internal pressures at Flamengo due to salaries and contracts, with possible fatigue from upcoming travel. Mirassol will likely rely on compact play and collective effort, while Flamengo may struggle to break down this block, especially if a key player is absent or out of form.

These conditions indicate a potential imbalance between structure and motivation. The contrast between Flamengos low individual performance — which still bears offensive responsibility — and Mirassol’s collective dedication could make the match more tactical and gritty than expected between teams from very different divisions. Scenarios with tight defenses, lower goal volume, and both teams exploiting mistakes to attack could emerge. Markets like Total Goals (Over/Under) and Both Teams to Score will be influenced by the view of collective effort versus pressured talents and by Flamengos travel fatigue management.

Table analysis for the match between Mirassol x Flamengo

Mirassol: Mirassol is in 4th place with 66 points, firmly within the qualification zone for the Copa Libertadores. The match against Flamengo is important for them to maintain or even improve this position, securing a direct spot in the most important continental competition. Since they are in a tight race with nearby teams, a good result at home is essential to avoid losing ground and to confirm the highly valued qualification.

Flamengo: Flamengo leads the championship with 78 points, already quite comfortable at the top of the table. Although they are in a strong position to win the title, there are still valuable points to be contested to secure the championship early and maintain their superiority in the standings. Therefore, the game against Mirassol is an opportunity to keep up the strong pace and secure the top spot until the end.

Summary: This match is important for both teams: Mirassol fights to secure their qualification for the Copa Libertadores and avoid losing important positions, while Flamengo wants to maintain the leadership and stay firm in the title race. A game with high competitive value for both! ⚽🔥

Tips for the Match Odds market for Mirassol x Flamengo

Is it worth betting on Mirassol?

🔵 Mirassol: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 84.15% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 1.50. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 840 times – this would give you a profit of $420.00
• And would have lost other 160 times – with a loss of -$160.00 because of them.

So this is a value bet. After all, at the end of these bets, you would have an expected profit of 💰$260.00.

Is it worth betting on draw?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 7.45% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.90. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 70 times – having a profit of $203.00;
• And would have lost other 930 times – with a loss of -$930.00 because of them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$727.00.

Is betting on Flamengo worth it?

🔴 Flamengo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 8.39%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 6.50. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 80 times – this would give you a profit of $440.00
• And would have lost other 920 times – with a loss of -$920.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$480.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Mirassol x Flamengo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.5 Mirassol
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Mirassol x Flamengo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.5 Mirassol, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -1.25 Mirassol.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.75. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: 1.25 Flamengo.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Mirassol x Flamengo

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.50 goals.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.25. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.