Palmeiras x Botafogo Betting tips for March 30 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Palmeiras x Botafogo, Sunday, 30/3/2025

📅 30/3/2025 19:00

Palmeiras 1.70

X 3.55

Botafogo 5.00

Our algorithm has selected this tip for Palmeiras x Botafogo:

🔮 Palmeiras wins the match
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Some important points for the tip for Palmeiras x Botafogo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Palmeiras in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-208.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-340.0. 👉 In the last 5 Botafogo matches as the away team, it finished under 2.5 goals. 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Botafogo conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Playing as the home team, Palmeiras conceded at least 1 goal(s) in all the last 3 head-to-head against Botafogo.

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Analysis from Palmeiras x Botafogo for the Brazil Serie A – 30 of March

Even though it may not seem intuitive, a good betting model should not seek to get the result for Palmeiras x Botafogo right, but instead show us in which events we have a positive expected value opportunity.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1291320 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Palmeiras x Botafogo

Is it worth betting on Palmeiras?

🔵 Palmeiras: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 75.68% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.70. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 760 times – this would give you a profit of $532.00
• And would lose other 240 times – losing -$240.00 with them.

That is why this is a value bet. In the end, you would have had a final profit of 💰$292.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 17.48% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.55. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 170 times – this would give you a profit of $433.50
• And would lose other 830 times – having a loss of -$830.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$396.50.

Is it a good idea to bet on Botafogo?

🔴 Botafogo: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 6.85% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.00. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 70 times – this would give you a profit of $280.00
• And would lose other 930 times – having a loss of -$930.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$650.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Palmeiras x Botafogo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Take a look at what our artificial intelligence has set apart for these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Palmeiras
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Palmeiras x Botafogo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Palmeiras, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Palmeiras.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Palmeiras x Botafogo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.75 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.25, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.50 goals.