Palmeiras x Botafogo Betting tips for November 27 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Palmeiras x Botafogo, Wednesday, 27/11/2024

📅 27/11/2024 00:30

Palmeiras 1.80

X 3.40

Botafogo 4.33

This is the bet made by our artificial intelligence for Palmeiras x Botafogo:

👎 Umm…too bad! We did not find any positive expected value bets for Palmeiras x Botafogo

Important information for your tip for Palmeiras x Botafogo: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Palmeiras in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a profit of $66.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Botafogo in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-75.0. 👉 In the last 7 matches as the home team, Palmeiras scored at least 1 goal(s).

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Analysis from Palmeiras x Botafogo for the Brazil Serie A – 27 of November

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Palmeiras and Botafogo.

And to do so, the algorithm analysed more than 1228745 matches on our football database looking for patterns to find the probabilities of the match ending with a victory for the home team, a tie or even a victory for the away team. Getting down to these values:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Palmeiras x Botafogo

Is it a good idea to bet on Palmeiras?

🔵 Palmeiras: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 42.53%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.80. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 430 times – having a profit of $344.00;
• And would lose other 570 times – losing -$570.00 with them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$226.00.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 30.21% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.40. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 300 times – this would give you a profit of $720.00
• And would lose other 700 times – losing -$700.00 with them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$20.00.

Is it worth betting on Botafogo?

🔴 Botafogo: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 27.26%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 4.33. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would have hit 270 times – having a profit of $899.10;
• And would lose other 730 times – having a loss of -$730.00 with them.

Although this bet has some value, notice that the expected profit is just 💰$169.10, which is not worth the risk in our point of view.

Handicaps analysis for the match Palmeiras x Botafogo

Another important market to analyse is the Asian handicaps one, our algorithm is also going to help you with that. In case you do not know what handicaps are, we will solve this problem now: we sorted out the material about Asian handicap on betting so you can click and save it to learn about it on the first opportunity.

Moving ahead we can see what the model has in store for these markets here:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Palmeiras
⚽ Expected goals: 2.50 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Palmeiras x Botafogo

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be -0.75 Palmeiras, and the current handicap offered by bookies is -0.75 Palmeiras.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Palmeiras x Botafogo

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 2.50 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 2.50 goals.

Since the handicap offered by bookmakers is the same as the one we got with our model, there is not any value bets on the Goals Handicap market.