Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama Betting tips for October 17 in Brazil Serie A

Our betting tip for Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama, Thursday, 17/10/2024

📅 17/10/2024 00:45

Sao Paulo 1.67

X 3.58

Vasco da Gama 5.00

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama:

🔮 Sao Paulo wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Sao Paulo, you can win up to $835.00!

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Important information for your tip for Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama: 👉 If you had bet $100 on Sao Paulo in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-85.0. 👉 If you had bet $100 on Vasco da Gama in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a loss of $-170.0. 👉 In the last 3 matches as the home team, Sao Paulo scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 7 matches as the away team, Vasco da Gama scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team against Vasco da Gama, Sao Paulo scored at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 5 matches as the home team, Sao Paulo conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Vasco da Gama conceded at least 1 goal(s). 👉 Sao Paulo has not lost any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Vasco da Gama playing at home.

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Analysis from Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama for the Brazil Serie A – 17 of October

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Sao Paulo and Vasco da Gama.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1202780 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Tips for the 1×2 market for Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama

Should you bet on Sao Paulo?

🔵 Sao Paulo: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 67.86% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 1.67. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 680 times – profiting $455.60;
• And would have lost other 320 times – with a loss of -$320.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, this is a value bet because you would have an expected final profit of 💰$135.60.

Is betting on draw worth it?

⚪ draw: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 18.61% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 3.58. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 190 times – having a profit of $490.20;
• And would lose other 810 times – having a loss of -$810.00 with them.

We are talking about a bet without profit, because after all you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$319.80.

Should you bet on Vasco da Gama?

🔴 Vasco da Gama: the model predicted that the probability of this event happening is 13.53% and we know that avarage odds offered by the bookies are 5.00. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 140 times – profiting $560.00;
• And would have lost other 860 times – with a loss of -$860.00 because of them.

Mathematically speaking, it is a negative expected value bet, because you would have an expected final loss of 💰-$300.00.

Handicaps analysis for the match Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama

The handicap market is also very searched for by bettors in professional bookmakers and our model can help you with that. Maybe you do not even know what this is. If handicap is a 7-headed monster for you, all you have to do is click on our article about Asian handicap on football betting and you will find a complete material to quickly teach you how it works. Click on it and leave it open on another tab to read later..

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: -0.75 Sao Paulo
⚽ Expected goals: 2.75 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama

⚖ Handicap 1×2: our model believes that the ideal handicap is -0.75 Sao Paulo and the available handicap to bet at the moment is -0.75 Sao Paulo.

The handicap that our algorithm found is the same as the bookies, which means that there is not any value to bet on the Handicap 1×2 market.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Sao Paulo x Vasco da Gama

⚽ Goals Handicap: our model believes that the ideal handicap is 2.75 goals and the available handicap to bet at the moment is 2.25 goals.

Since the difference between the handicap we calculated and the offered by the bookie is 0.50, this means that the best bet for the Goals Handicap is on: + 2.25 goals.