Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen Betting tips for December 6 in Germany Bundesliga I

Our betting tip for Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday, 6/12/2025

📅 6/12/2025 14:30

Augsburg 3.78

X 3.80

Bayer Leverkusen 1.85

This is the tip that our machine learning model has selected for Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen:

🔮 Bayer Leverkusen wins the match
💰 When you bet the bonus of $500 from Bet365 on Bayer Leverkusen, you can win up to $925.00!

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The main points for the tip for Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen:

👉 If you had bet $100 on Augsburg in each of its last 5 matches as home, you would have had a loss of $-270.0.
👉 If you had bet $100 on Bayer Leverkusen in each of its last 5 matches as away, you would have had a profit of $1351.0.
👉 In the last 4 matches as the away team, Bayer Leverkusen scored at least 1 goal(s).
👉 In the last 3 Augsburg matches as the home team, it finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 In the last 3 head-to-head matches between Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen, with Augsburg as the home team, they finished under 2.5 goals.
👉 Bayer Leverkusen is hard to beat as a visitor: it has 4 wins in a row in its last road matches.

🤖 Critical analysis from ChatGPT on our prediction for Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen:

Lets analyze the match between Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen at WWK Arena, which is Augsburgs usual stadium, giving them the home advantage. ⚽

📊 Recent statistics show that Augsburg has had offensive and defensive difficulties: they scored an average of 0.4 goals per game at home in the last 5 matches (2 goals in 5 games) and conceded an average of 1.8 goals per game (9 conceded). Additionally, they have won only 1 of the last 5 home games, with a clear negative goal difference. On the other hand, Bayer Leverkusen shows a much better away performance: they scored about 1.4 goals per game in the last five away matches and conceded fewer (0.8), winning four of these five encounters.

The median odds indicate a clear favoritism for Bayer Leverkusen with odds close to 1.85 for their win, while odds for Augsburg win or draw are around 3.8.

Calculating the implied probabilities from the median odds gives us:

• Augsburg win: ~26% (1/3.8)
• Draw: ~26% (1/3.8)
• Bayer Leverkusen win: ~54% (1/1.85)

Sum of implied probabilities = approximately 106%, indicating the house edge.

After normalization to total 100%, the fair probabilities are approximately:

• Augsburg win: ~24%
• Draw: ~24%
• Bayer Leverkusen win: ~52%

Analyzing the statistical data along with recent news 📰:

• Augsburg dismissed their coach Sandro Wagner after poor results and appointed Manuel Baum as interim — this could cause instability in the team.
• Bayer Leverkusen faces defensive issues especially on set pieces and internal squad problems, but remains strong in the competition with good recent results including against tough opponents.

From a tactical and psychological perspective 📈, Bayer is in a more comfortable position in the Bundesliga table while Augsburg fights to escape the lower mid-table zone; this gives the visitor greater motivation to seek the three points even away from home.

Based on this, my fair estimate of the probabilities would be approximately:

• Augsburg win – adjusted probability about 22%
• Draw – adjusted probability about 25%
• Bayer Leverkusen win – adjusted probability about 53%

Calculating the fair odds based on these probabilities:
– Augsburg victory ≈ 4.55
– Draw ≈ 4
– Bayer victory ≈ 1.89

Expected value analysis using the final market odds:
– EV Augsburg win = ((3.8 /4.55) -1)*100 = -16%
– EV Draw = ((3.8 /4) -1)*100= -5%
– EV Bayer victory = ((1.85 /1.89) -1)*100= -2 %

No bet shows a positive expected value above the recommended limit (+5%), indicating no clear good opportunity based on these combined analyses.

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Bets Kenya model analysis:
The model indicates a strong preference for the visitors victory with a very low predicted odd (~1.29), suggesting high confidence in this option — but this odd seems underestimated given the real data where we see some defensive vulnerability in the visiting team.
Additionally, it points to negative expected values in other options but a high positive value (+43%) in the bet on the visitors victory.
I disagree with this extreme confidence in the model because despite the clear favoritism towards Bayer Leverkusen, the defensive risks mentioned in the news could balance this matchup more.

Final suggestion: avoid aggressive bets here or consider moderate bets on the draw or even Asian handicap favoring Bayern if you want to risk some smaller value.
Betting directly on Bayerns simple victory seems to have little real value according to detailed analysis of current numbers + recent team context.

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⚠️ Always remember that football is unpredictable! Use this analysis as a complementary guide to your personal strategy 😉👍

Do you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen?

If you want other options of bookmakers to bet on Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen, no problem. Right below you have the sports betting sites that we used the most in 2025. You will be in good hands on any of them, just pick your favorite and start betting:

Analysis from Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen for the Germany Bundesliga I – 6 of December

A good bettor is not the one with a high hits percentage, but the one who bets on positive expected value events. Our AI model knows it very well and has looked for these opportunities for the match between Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen.

Therefore, to find the numbers, our artificial intelligence has colected information from around 1449132 matches on our betting database, in order to calculate the probabilities of this match ending with a home team victory, a tied match or even an away team victory. Check out the results:

Latest news on Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen

FC Augsburg: FC Augsburg has sacked Sandro Wagner after a 0-3 defeat to TSG Hoffenheim and a record of one win, one draw, and nine losses in his 14-match tenure, with former coach Manuel Baum appointed as interim manager until the end of the year; club officials Michael Ströll and sporting director Benjamin Weber stated that the change was necessary because the team had become a “grey rat” in the league, where Augsburg currently sits 12th in the Bundesliga. Baum will lead the team in the upcoming DFB-Pokal quarter-final match against Bayer Leverkusen.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Bayer 04 Leverkusen faces several issues in early December 2025: their defensive organization on set pieces has been criticized after repeated goals conceded from corners and fouls, sparking rumors of hiring a specialist now that assistant Sebastian Parrilla has left; a substitution dispute involving striker Serhou Guirassy caused friction with coach Niko Kovac, but they have since reconciled; the club advanced to the DFB-Pokal quarter-finals after a 1-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund on December 2, with Ibrahim Maza scoring the decisive goal; up to five players risk missing the league match on December 20 against Leipzig due to the Africa Cup of Nations, a challenge coach Xabi Hjulmand says he can only adapt to; additionally, Fabio Silva drew attention with a standout performance as Leverkusen continues managing injuries and squad rotations.

Table analysis for the match between Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen

Augsburg: Augsburg is in 14th place with 10 points, showing a quite tough campaign. They are close to the relegation zone and need to earn points to avoid the danger of dropping to the second division. Every game now is crucial to escape this threat. Therefore, the match against Bayer Leverkusen is very important for Augsburg, which urgently needs a victory to gain momentum in the fight against relegation.

Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen is in 4th place with 23 points, fighting for a spot in the Champions League. They are in direct contention for positions that qualify for European competitions, so they cannot afford to slip up. A win against Augsburg is essential to keep pressure on the leaders and secure their place among the top teams, as any stumble could open space for direct competitors. The game is highly important for Leverkusen, as it can solidify or harm their campaign towards international competitions.

Summary: This is an important game for both teams, but for different reasons. Augsburg fights to escape relegation, while Bayer Leverkusen seeks to establish itself among the Champions League teams. The match will have a significant impact on both situations.

Tips for the 1×2 market for Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen

Is betting on Augsburg worth it?

🔵 Augsburg: the algorithm believes the chances of this event happening are 14.22% and we have noticed that the avarage odds offered by the bookmakers are 3.78. This means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would have hit 140 times – having a profit of $389.20;
• And would lose other 860 times – losing -$860.00 with them.

That is why this bet does not have value. In the end, you would have had a final loss of 💰-$470.80.

Is it a good idea to bet on draw?

⚪ draw: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 9.01%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 3.80. That is, when you make 1000 bets of $1 like this one, you:

• Would hit 90 times – profiting $252.00;
• And would have lost other 910 times – with a loss of -$910.00 because of them.

So this bet does not have value. After all, you would have an expected loss of 💰-$658.00.

Should you bet on Bayer Leverkusen?

🔴 Bayer Leverkusen: our artificial intelligence has calculated that the probability of this event happening is around 76.77%, meanwhile the bookies are offering avarage odds of 1.85. In other words, this means that if you made 1000 bets of $1 like this, you:

• Would hit 770 times – profiting $654.50;
• And would lose other 230 times – having a loss of -$230.00 with them.

It is a value bet, since after all you would have an expected final profit of 💰$424.50.

Handicaps analysis for the match Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen

Another approach is trying to find the fair handicap for the main markets and our machine learning model will also give you a helping hand with that. If you have no idea what a handicap is, do not worry! We have a complete article about the Asian handicap on sporting betting that will answer all your questions. You can click on it and leave it open on another tab so you can read later.

This is what our nice robot has to tell us about these markets:

⚖ Handicap 1×2: +1.0 Augsburg
⚽ Expected goals: 3.00 goals

Tips for the Handicap 1×2 market for Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen

⚖ Handicap 1×2: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be +1.0 Augsburg, and the current handicap offered by bookies is +0.5 Augsburg.

We can notice that the difference between the handicap predicted by the model and the one available to bet at the bookmaker is 0.50. Therefore, the recommended bet for the Handicap 1×2 is on: -0.5 Bayer Leverkusen.

Tips for the Goals Handicap market for Augsburg x Bayer Leverkusen

⚽ Goals Handicap: considering the estimates of our model, the main handicap should be 3.00 goals, and the current handicap offered by bookies is 3.00 goals.

Since there is not big differences between the handicap offered by bookies and the one suggested by our algorithm, we can consider that there is no value to bet on the Goals Handicap market.